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YouGov Daily Poll – 37/34/17 – UPDATED
Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 37%(nc), LAB 34%(+2), LDEM 17%(nc). Leaving aside that 2 pointer for the Sunday Times, which in hindsight was probably something of a rogue, it’s the lowest Conservative lead YouGov have shown since October 2007 and the election-that-never-was.
Thu, 11 Mar 2010 22:03:23 +0000
Anthony Wells
AngusReid
Voting Intention
YouGov
YouGov Daily Polls
YouGov Daily Poll – 37/32/17
YouGov’s daily poll has figures of CON 37%(+1), LAB 32%(nc), LDEM 17%(-3). It looks as though that sudden 20% for the Lib Dems yesterday was no more than a blip, and we are back to a 5 point Conservative lead.
Wed, 10 Mar 2010 22:05:31 +0000
Anthony Wells
Voting Intention
YouGov
YouGov Daily Polls
Northern Ireland polling
Polls in northern Ireland are very rare creatures, not least because they have a rather poor record. There is a strong tendency for them to under-report the proportion of people voting for parties at the more hardline ends of the political spectrum, and over-report those in the centre.
Wed, 10 Mar 2010 17:14:21 +0000
Anthony Wells
Northern Ireland
YouGov daily figures – 36/32/20 – UPDATED
Tonight’s YouGov daily polling has topline figures of CON 36%(-3), LAB 32%(-2), LDEM 20%(+4). After a fortnight or so of leads within one percent of 6 points, we have something ever so slightly different. The lead hasn’t changed much, and is still very easily inside the margin of error of an unchanged six point lead, [...]
Tue, 09 Mar 2010 22:06:11 +0000
Anthony Wells
Harris
Voting Intention
YouGov
YouGov Daily Polls
Populus poll of marginal seats
There is a Populus poll of marginal seats in tomorrow’s Times, Peter Riddell’s commentary is here. The headline figures in the poll is CON 38%, LAB 38% and this has resulted in a flurry of excitement from twitterers, but what it means depends upon which seats were polled.
Mon, 08 Mar 2010 22:53:18 +0000
Anthony Wells
Populus
YouGov Daily Poll – 39/34/16
YouGov’s daily poll has topline figures of CON 39%(+1), LAB 34%(+1), LDEM 16%(-1). The lead remains at 5 points, but both the main parties have increased with the Lib Dems down to 16 points again. As I said at the weekend while writing about ICM’s poll, this is often a difficult time for the Liberal [...]
Mon, 08 Mar 2010 22:07:33 +0000
Anthony Wells
Voting Intention
YouGov
YouGov Daily Polls
“Opinium” poll in the Express shows 7 point Tory lead – UPDATED
Following new polls from TNS BMRB and a rare sighting of a Harris poll, we have another new entrant – this is shaping up to be an extremely heavily polled election! Anyway, tomorrow’s Express has a new poll from Opinium – who they? Looking at their website here, they seem to be an online outfit [...]
Mon, 08 Mar 2010 20:54:58 +0000
Anthony Wells
Voting Intention
Tonight’s polls
Two new national polls tonight: YouGov’s daily poll in the Sun and a new entrant in the Express – Opinium Research. They have topline figures of CON 37%, LAB 30%, LDEM 16% – but more on that later. We will also have a new poll from Populus in the Times, but it is apparently going [...]
Mon, 08 Mar 2010 20:04:30 +0000
Anthony Wells
Uncategorized
Make your predictions
There are unlikely to be any polls out tonight, so in response to public demand (and organised by Al J), here’s a thread for your general election predictions. Please try and keep this thread for general election predictions, rather than wander off onto other subjects.
Sun, 07 Mar 2010 22:24:32 +0000
Anthony Wells
Uncategorized
New BPIX poll
As well as the ICM and YouGov polls I reported last night, there is also a BPIX poll in the Mail on Sunday. The topline figures with changes from January are CON 36%(-3), LAB 34%(+4), LDEM 18%(nc). The poll was of 5655 people, so large enough to offer cross breaks of marginal seats. In the [...]
Sun, 07 Mar 2010 09:49:15 +0000
Anthony Wells
BPIX
Voting Intention
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politicalbetting.com
The web's premier resource for political betting.
Thu, 11 Mar 2010 22:06:39 +0000
But PB/Angus Reid has the gap widening to 13 points
Angus Reid for Politicalbetting Mar 11 Feb 19
CONSERVATIVES 39% 38%
LABOUR 26% 26%
LIB DEMS 18% 19%
LAB to CON swing from 2005 8% 7.5%
So why the difference between the two online pollsters? Here’s the second poll of the night - the exclusive Angus Reid one for Politicalbetting - which is showing a radically different picture than YouGov a few minutes ago. On the face of it this is [...]
Thu, 11 Mar 2010 22:06:39 +0000
Mike Smithson
General
Labour gets two points closer in the daily poll
YouGov poll (The Sun) Mar 11 Mar 10
CONSERVATIVES 37% 37%
LABOUR 34% 32%
LIB DEMS 17% 17%
LAB to CON swing from 2005 3% 4%
Within the MOE - but will it affect the narrative ? So here it is - tonight’s daily poll which was not as falsely reported by a commenter earlier in the evening. This might give some comfort to Labour but I guess that all parties [...]
Thu, 11 Mar 2010 21:59:56 +0000
Mike Smithson
AngusReid
Voting Intention
YouGov
YouGov Daily Polls
General
A special cartoon by Marf
Yet more polls on the way! Marf, PB’s cartoonist, has been totally tied up for months in a big project but she’s still keen to maintain her links with PB. The above drawing was done for the site’s 5th birthday last year and hasn’t been published before. So as we wait for tonight’s polling news I thought [...]
Thu, 11 Mar 2010 18:13:41 +0000
Mike Smithson
Voting Intention
YouGov
YouGov Daily Polls
General Election
About the site
Pollsters/polling
Forget voting intention: What about the country’s “mood”?
Research by Dr Jane Green and Dr Will Jennings, Manchester University A new measure by researchers at the University of Manchester shows a significant problem for Gordon Brown: the mood of the country is against Labour on policy competence. It is as serious for Gordon Brown as it was for the Conservatives before Labour’s landslide victory [...]
Thu, 11 Mar 2010 12:49:20 +0000
Double Carpet
Northern Ireland
Guest Contribution
Take part in the PB user survey
All views are welcome especially from lurkers In conjunction with Woodnewton Associates we are carrying out a survey of PB users to find out more about ourselves, how we might improve the site and also to get a feel for the political make-up of the PB community. This is the first time we’ve ever attempted anything like [...]
Thu, 11 Mar 2010 03:30:01 +0000
Mike Smithson
Harris
Voting Intention
YouGov
YouGov Daily Polls
About the site
General
Tories daily poll lead goes up by a point
YouGov daily poll (The Sun) Mar 10 Mar 9
CONSERVATIVES 37% 36%
LABOUR 32% 32%
LIB DEMS 17% 20%
LAB to CON swing from 2005 4% 3.5%
And the Lib Dems slump after last night’s boost So the Labour share remains stable tonight with the Tories edging up and the Lib Dems taking quite a hit. This will bring some relief to the blue team which yesterday touched a two and [...]
Wed, 10 Mar 2010 21:59:16 +0000
Mike Smithson
Populus
General Election
Pollsters/polling
Andy Cooke on the UNS - Part 3
UNS - Exploring the Distortions I’ve put together a short series on UNS – what it is, what’s its track record, and what levels of distortion have occurred in recent elections. This is part three of three. It is an article of faith that the electoral system is inherently biased against the Conservative Party. Certainly [...]
Wed, 10 Mar 2010 17:51:55 +0000
Double Carpet
Voting Intention
YouGov
YouGov Daily Polls
General Election
Guest Contribution
Will ICM remain “The Gold Standard”?
Look at how out of line it was in March 1997 One of the phrases you hear time and time again about ICM’s polling is that it is “The Gold Standard”. This came from its performance at the 1997 general election when it was wildly out of line with everybody else and ended up being proved right. [...]
Wed, 10 Mar 2010 13:26:47 +0000
Mike Smithson
Voting Intention
General
Hung Parliament? Punters not convinced
Come on you guys - follow the media narrative? After doing my posting on the Populus marginals poll early yesterday I thought I’d try to make a quick buck by betting £257 on the “no overall majority” option in the Betfair overall majority market. The price I got, was 1.9/1 and my reading was that this [...]
Wed, 10 Mar 2010 06:06:09 +0000
Mike Smithson
Uncategorized
General Election
Betting
All parties take a hit with Harris
Harris poll for The Metro Mar 9 Feb 22
CONSERVATIVES 37% 39%
LABOUR 29% 30%
LIB DEMS 18% 22%
LAB to CON swing from 2005 5.5% 6%
And “others” soar in another online poll As the polling deluge continues there’s another survey out this evening from Harris Interactive for the Metro. The figures are above with the big move, surely, being a huge increase in the numbers saying that they will [...]
Tue, 09 Mar 2010 22:56:32 +0000
Mike Smithson
Uncategorized
General Election
PB Angus Reid polls
Pollsters/polling
Big boost for Nick Clegg in the daily poll
YouGov daily poll (The Sun) Mar 9 Mar 8
CONSERVATIVES 36% 39%
LABOUR 32% 34%
LIB DEMS 20% 16%
LAB to CON swing from 2005 3.5% 4%
But why have the Tories and Labour gone down? Inevitably the daily poll is going to throw up some odd quirks and this evening we see big moves by all the main parties. As far as I can see the reason that the Lib [...]
Tue, 09 Mar 2010 21:59:31 +0000
Mike Smithson
BPIX
Voting Intention
General
Let’s all pat ourselves on the back
Evening Standard “….But the kind of scrutiny to which certain punters subject opinion polls now is useful — and greater than that of some political obsessives. When Kellner appeared for a live online discussion on politicalbetting.com last week, he was grilled by dozens of punters probing the finer points of YouGov’s weighting system. It was, compared [...]
Tue, 09 Mar 2010 19:39:07 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election
About the site
Opinium publish their historic polls
Notice how others are large - like Angus Reid The new kid on the polling block, Opinium, has published its historic polls and it is interesting to track how it compares with everybody else. The striking feature for me is that it consistently has a high share for others - very much in line with the PB/Angus [...]
Tue, 09 Mar 2010 13:45:11 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election
PB Angus Reid polls
Pollsters/polling
Populus marginals poll has the Tories just short
Populus marginals poll (Times) F/W Mar 7 2005
CONSERVATIVES 38% 31.5
LABOUR 38% 45.3
LIB DEMS ??% ??
LAB to CON swing 6.7% –
Is a hung parliament now looking more likely? We’ve now got details of the Times Populus poll for March which is not a national voting intention survey but one that is focussed entirely on Tory’s targets from Labour numbers 51 - 150. It’s assumed that the first [...]
Tue, 09 Mar 2010 02:57:24 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election
Betting
Pollsters/polling
Tories and Labour move up one in the daily poll
YouGov daily poll: The Sun 08/03/10 Prev
CONSERVATIVES 39% 38
LABOUR 34% 33
LIB DEMS 16% 17
LAB to CON swing 4% 4%
So YouGov continues to show a Labour share that is higher than other pollsters and the 34% means that Labour is hanging onto seventeen out eighteen of those who backed Blair’s party in 2005. That is certainly not supported by the splits linked to past vote reported [...]
Mon, 08 Mar 2010 21:59:15 +0000
Mike Smithson
General
New pollster has 37/30/16
“Opinium” for the Express 08/03/10 2005
CONSERVATIVES 37% 33.2
LABOUR 30% 36.2
LIB DEMS 16% 22.7
LAB to CON swing 5% ??
This is a new one on me and needs further investigating. According to reports “The poll was taken by Opinium from 5th to 8th March using what is described as “their research panel” of 1960 individuals.” I wonder whether they poll the same 1960 individuals again and again? We [...]
Mon, 08 Mar 2010 20:49:20 +0000
Mike Smithson
General
Which way will Populus be going?
Will tonight’s poll be in ICM or YouGov territory? After a weekend which has seen two very different views from the pollsters we are due the March Populus survey for the Times this evening. The big question is whether it will have figures in the YouGov family territory (down to 2% with YouGov/BPIX) or that of [...]
Mon, 08 Mar 2010 17:20:36 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election
Pollsters/polling
Q. “How important is it to you personally who wins the General Election?”
Ipsos-MORI What does this say about potential turnout? Two of the great things about Ipsos-MORI is that it has been political polling in the UK for longer than any other firm with a website that has a mine of information going back decades. Another good thing is that the firm’s non-voting intention questions are generally very well [...]
Mon, 08 Mar 2010 14:36:32 +0000
Mike Smithson
General
Cameron hit most as all the leader ratings drop
“Is Brown/Cameron/Clegg doing well-badly as PM/CON leader/LD leader ..”
“Well” “Badly“ +/-
Brown 36% (36) 60% (58) -2%
Cameron 48% (50) 44% (39) -7%
Clegg 43% (42) 31% (28) -2%
Are the Tories right to make Brown the issue? This is the second of my planned weekly threads on what many pundits believe are the best guide to forecasting general elections - the leader approval ratings. The comparisons above are the [...]
Mon, 08 Mar 2010 06:12:58 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election
Campaigning
Gordon Brown
Leader approval ratings
How do hung parliament advocates deal with this?
Times online What do these say about hung parliaments and the LDs? Reproduced above are a couple of findings from today’s Sunday Times YouGov poll which I think might have signficance. The first is a form of forced choice question where the responses are Lib Dem supporters are the most interesting. Just comparing their answers then support [...]
Sun, 07 Mar 2010 19:09:33 +0000
Mike Smithson
General
Andy Cooke on the UNS - Part 2
Uniform National Swing – the track record I’ve put together a short series on UNS – what it is, what’s its track record, and what levels of distortion have occurred in recent elections. This is part two of three. When did UNS break? It can’t simply be one of those myths that it’s fairly accurate [...]
Sun, 07 Mar 2010 12:52:49 +0000
Mike Smithson
General
Guest Contribution
Will you be betting on the YouGov family or ICM?
CON 36% (33.2) LAB 34% (36.2) LD 18% (22.7) Comparisons are with the 2005 result LAB>CON swing on 2005: 2.5% Second YouGov family poll has it down to 2 points There was another poll from the YouGov family overnight - this time from the firm that trades under the name of BPIX. It’s the first from them this year [...]
Sun, 07 Mar 2010 04:44:55 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election
Betting
ICM has the blues back in the 40s
CON 40% (37) LAB 31% (30) LD 18% (20) LAB>CON swing on 2005: 6% Has the move to Labour run out of steam? A new ICM poll for the News of the World goes very much against the trend of the past few weeks and has the Tories increasing their lead over Labour to the psychologically key level [...]
Sat, 06 Mar 2010 19:47:29 +0000
Mike Smithson
Pollsters/polling
How much can we read into this?
British Election Study But could Labour activists now be more motivated? In the next few weeks we’ll be seeing a lot of data about difference aspects of the campaign from the British Election Study - a big academic programme involving a number of universities and quite a lot of polling. In this posting Professor Paul Whiteley writes: [...]
Sat, 06 Mar 2010 13:22:06 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election
Campaigning
Pollsters/polling
Will there be a pre-election Budget?
Is there no date because they can’t agree the contents? Last year’s budget was delivered on 22 April, the latest ‘regular’ budget since they reverted to their traditional Spring slot. That date was announced on 12 February. More than three weeks beyond the equivalent date this year, there has been no announcement as to when the [...]
Sat, 06 Mar 2010 04:26:11 +0000
David Herdson
General Election
Tories take an 8 point lead with TNS-BMRB
CON 39% (33.2) LAB 31% (36.2) LD 19% (22.7) LAB>CON swing on 2005: 5.7% Yet another pollster enters the fray There’s a new voting intention survey out tonight from the Edinburgh-firm, TNS-BMRB, which has just started doing general election polls for the whole of Britain. The firm is well-established in Scotland and does regular political surveys north of [...]
Fri, 05 Mar 2010 19:55:57 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election
Pollsters/polling
YouGov seeks to placate its weightings critics
What do we think of the Anthony Wells explanation? YouGov staffer and operator of UKPollingReport, Anthony Wells, has put up a long post seeking to answer some of the points about the firm’s weightings that have appeared here in recent days. The essence of his article is that there have been adjustments to deal with the new [...]
Fri, 05 Mar 2010 17:05:00 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election
General
Pollsters/polling
YouGov points to disproportionate swing in Wales
CON 29% (21.4) LAB 37% (42.7) LD 12% (18.4) PC 14% (12.6) But the Tories are down on January A new YouGov poll of Welsh Westminster voting intentions points to a 6.6% swing to the Tories since the May 2005 general election and the possibility of eight gains. The comparisons above are from the last [...]
Fri, 05 Mar 2010 12:41:33 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election
Betting
Tories
What about the firms that haven’t changed since 2005?
Will ICM and Populus be going with the flow? One of the difficulties looking at current polling is that YouGov are doing so many surveys that they almost drown out everybody else - and we have not heard for some time from the two firms, ICM and Populus, which will be going into this election using [...]
Fri, 05 Mar 2010 03:18:19 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election
Pollsters/polling
No change in the daily poll Tory lead
CON 38% (38) LAB 32% (32) LD 17%(19) So what IS going to move the numbers? The incredibly consistent daily poll continues to remain very stable - unmoved by bullygate and now by Michael Ashcroft - that you begin to wonder what could change the numbers. The Tories would feel much more comfortable if they were back in the [...]
Thu, 04 Mar 2010 21:59:08 +0000
Mike Smithson
General
Another poll has the Tories doing better in the marginals
UPDATED But the swing is only two points better A YouGov poll for Channel 4 in 60 key seats by YouGov has the gap between the parties down to just two points - but given what happened in the seats in 2005 this represents a 6.5% swing. This compares with a swing of 4.5% in recent national [...]
Thu, 04 Mar 2010 17:08:31 +0000
Mike Smithson
General
So where does the Ashcroft story go from here?
BBC News There’s been news within the past half hour that the Electoral Commission is to rule that donations to the Tory party by a company owned the controversial deputy chair, Michael Ashcroft, have been declared to be legal. The body has been examining 173 donations totally more than five million pounds in the five years [...]
Thu, 04 Mar 2010 12:22:38 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election
Tories
Did Nick Clegg get his first “debate dividend”?
What’ll be the consequences in the marginals? Did I miss the glaringly obvious when I wrote that I did not know what had caused the 3% boost for the Lib Dems in the overnight YouGov daily poll for the Sun? For the reason was plain to see as Mike L commented on the previous thread: “Last [...]
Thu, 04 Mar 2010 03:01:30 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election
Leaders' TV debates
Lib Dems
Pollsters/polling
The Tory daily poll lead moves up a notch
CON 38% (38) LAB 32% (33) LD 19%(16) And the Lib Dems move up three Apart from that blip at the weekend when the Tory lead slipped to just two points the daily poll has had pretty stable figures and tonight’s numbers are no exception. The Tories stable, Labour down one and the Lib Dems up three. Given [...]
Wed, 03 Mar 2010 21:59:06 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election
Pollsters/polling
Is this how the capital will look on May 7th?
Reproduced from the London Evening Standard CON 39% (32) LAB 35% (39) LD 17%(22) YouGov finds a bigger Tory swing in London A new YouGov poll for tonight’s London Evening Standard suggests that the Tories might be on target to make a dozen gains in the capital at the election. The shares are above with the changes since the [...]
Wed, 03 Mar 2010 17:43:15 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election
London and local elections
Pollsters/polling
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Forecast UK
Predicting the Next UK General Election
Thu, 11 Mar 2010 22:06:39 +0000
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Can Brown still hold a March 25th Election?
The simple answer is, yes. Here is the timetable from the official Commons’ Briefing Paper, together with the relevant dates.
Fri, 26 Feb 2010 11:34:10 +0000
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Latest Forecast – 8th January 2010
The second of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote, shows dramatic movement in public opinion over the past week. The failed Labour leadership coup has damaged the Government and our forecast has been adjusted to present a much more confident picture for Dave Cameron’s Conservatives.
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