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UK Polling Report
Tue, 19 Aug 2008 14:39:25 +0000
Holiday
Tue, 19 Aug 2008 14:39:25 +0000
Anthony Wells
Uncategorized
As you may have guessed, i’m currently on holiday, in the wilds of norfolk where even broadband toggles fear to tread (or at least fear to work). Please use this thread to discuss any exciting polls in my absence - like that ICM one in this mornings Guardian.
SNP storm ahead in Scotland
Tue, 12 Aug 2008 10:56:14 +0000
Anthony Wells
Scotland
YouGov
The SNP continue to drip-drip the findings of their YouGov poll into the public arena - today’s press release has the constituency voting intentions for the Scottish Parliament, and show a daunting SNP lead over Labour. Topline voting intentions are CON 13%, LAB 25%, LDEM 14%, SNP 44% - a nineteen point lead for the [...]
More from Sunday’s YouGov Poll
Mon, 11 Aug 2008 12:42:42 +0000
Anthony Wells
Labour
YouGov
The full tables for the News of the World’s YouGov poll are now available here.
On whether replacing Gordon Brown as leader would make people more or less likely to vote Labour, 21% said it would make them more likely, with 7% saying less likely. While I’m still no great fan of questions like this, [...]
YouGov show 20 point Tory lead
Sun, 10 Aug 2008 09:51:43 +0000
Anthony Wells
Voting Intention
YouGov
A new YouGov poll for the News of the World has topline voting intention questions of CON 46%(-1), LAB 26%(+1), LDEM 17%(+1). The poll was conducted between the 6th and 8th of August. I do tend to be slightly wary of August polls - most pollsters do weight samples by the number of foreign holidays [...]
Why we should be wary of leadership polls
Tue, 05 Aug 2008 09:10:04 +0000
Anthony Wells
ICM
Labour
The full tables for ICM’s poll on Sunday are now up on their website. Amongst other things ICM asked whether people would even recognise some of the potential leadership challengers if they saw them in the street. While 79% think they would recognise Jack Straw, only 54% would recognise Harriet Harman and 53% David Miliband, [...]
Two Sunday Polls
Sun, 03 Aug 2008 07:51:46 +0000
Anthony Wells
BPIX
ICM
Voting Intention
There are two new polls in the Sunday papers. A new ICM poll in the Sunday Express has topline figures, with changes from ICM’s last poll, of CON 45%(+2), LAB 29%(+1), LDEM 16%(-3). It was conducted betweeb the 30th July and 1st August. It’s actually the highest level of Labour support for two months, [...]
Poll suggests Brown’s rivals would be no improvement
Thu, 31 Jul 2008 20:32:56 +0000
Anthony Wells
Labour
Voting Intention
YouGov
A new YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph has topline voting intention figures of CON 47%, LAB 25%, LDEM 16%. YouGov also asked a series of questions about how people would vote with different people as Labour leader. Of the potential alternatives to Brown, only Jack Straw did better than Brown, and then not by [...]
Who would be Labour’s most popular leader?
Thu, 31 Jul 2008 19:51:12 +0000
Anthony Wells
Uncategorized
With the focus on Gordon Brown’s teetering leadership, it was always inevitable that would start seeing hypothetical polls on how people would vote with David Milliband, Alan Johnson, Jack Straw, Uncle Tom Cobley and all as Labour leader. I expected it to turn up on Saturday, but according to the Telegraph blog the first such [...]
From the ashes…
Wed, 30 Jul 2008 08:15:23 +0000
Anthony Wells
Uncategorized
Something for fans of the constituency guide part of the site, some people will remember Robert Waller - the co-author of the Almanac of British Politics - did a series of programmes on 18 Doughty Street covering the various regional battlegrounds at the next election. 18DS is no more, but Iain Dale has saved the [...]
First post-Glasgow poll
Mon, 28 Jul 2008 20:30:24 +0000
Anthony Wells
Populus
Voting Intention
Populus have carried out an extra snap poll following the Glasgow East by-election, it was conducted between the 25th and 27th, so is the first with fieldwork conducted entirely after the by-election result.
The topline voting intention figures are CON 43%(+2), LAB 27%(-1), LDEM 18%(+1), so a slight shift to the Conservatives, but that’s taken from [...]
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politicalbetting.com
The web's premier resource for political betting.
Thu, 21 Aug 2008 22:37:20 +0000
Continuation thread…
Thu, 21 Aug 2008 22:36:50 +0000
Morus
Round-ups
And still we wait…
In spite of hints and rumours, there is still no confirmation of Barack Obama’s running mate as he speaks to a small crowd in Richmond, Virginia with Governor Tim Kaine. He is attacking McCain for having seven houses worth $13m - the Republican was unable to say how many properties he owned [...]
Is this the next leader of Scottish Labour?
Thu, 21 Aug 2008 14:28:10 +0000
Mike Smithson
General
Henry G Manson says the 11/4 on Cathy is a good value bet
Cathy Jamieson is the acting Scottish Labour Leader following the resignation of Wendy Alexander. She was the party's Deputy Leader before this contest and has previously been Minster for Justice and for Children. As the election race progresses her rivals for [...]
What if the “golden rule” was proved right?
Thu, 21 Aug 2008 01:02:25 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election
Betting
Pollsters/polling
The "Golden Rule" Seat Calculations
Could Cameron really be heading for a 260 seat majority?
One of the things I often write when talking about UK polling is that based on two decades of general elections, every single London mayoral race and every single by election where there has been polling the “golden rule” has applied.
This says simply that the most [...]
Gordon says Labour will win
Wed, 20 Aug 2008 19:57:17 +0000
Mike Smithson
General
MORI put the Tories 24% ahead
The Guardian is reporting this evening that Brown was in bullish mood about Labour’s election chances as he talked to journalists on the long flight to China for the Olympics.
According to Deborah Summers he “..rejected Tory claims that it was now impossible for Labour to win the next election. “We [...]
Could this happen to Gordon if he’s not careful?
Wed, 20 Aug 2008 15:13:12 +0000
Mike Smithson
Labour
Is this why a cabinet re-shuffle could be a minefield?
All of those old enough remember it - the speech to the commons by the deputy prime minister, Sir Geoffrey Howe, in November 1990 after he had resigned from Mrs. Thatcher’s cabinet. Click on the picture to watch.
This was probably the most dramatic event that [...]
Could Obama be making the Gordon Brown mistake?
Wed, 20 Aug 2008 04:31:58 +0000
Mike Smithson
Betting
WHITE HOUSE RACE
Is the VEEP teasing like last autumn’s UK election speculation?
One of the main reasons why Mr Brown is in trouble now, as we all know, is that he and his team allowed the talk of an early general election last autumn to get out of hand. There was a sense that they were teasing the [...]
Will the Obama text campaign help get the vote out?
Tue, 19 Aug 2008 16:46:35 +0000
Mike Smithson
Betting
WHITE HOUSE RACE
How the VP announcement might win more votes
As we wait for the Obama VP announcement it’s perhaps worth looking at why his campaign has said that the name will be announced first to all those who have registered their mobile phone numbers so that they can receive a text message.
For a key strategy is to [...]
Can Gordon take some relief from this?
Tue, 19 Aug 2008 04:30:23 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election
Labour
Pollsters/polling
But does the poll ask the wrong question?
The Guardian’s ICM poll for August is out and has the following shares compared with the last survey from the pollster earlier in the month - CON 44% (- 1): LAB 29% (nc): LD 19% (+3)
So broadly little change except that that the dreadful rating for the Lib [...]
Is today going to be VEEP-day?
Mon, 18 Aug 2008 13:28:49 +0000
Mike Smithson
Betting
WHITE HOUSE RACE
At least it will end the betting misery
If ever there’s been a market that’s alerted me to the fact that I might have a problem with betting on politics it has been on Barack Obama’s choice of running mate. As I noted here in June - betting on this is a “mug’s game” because it’s [...]
Could over-confidence be Dave’s undoing?
Mon, 18 Aug 2008 01:22:43 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election
Tories
Should he really be calling fellow leaders a “liar” and a “joke”?
With barely nineteen months to go before a general election has to be declared the Tory leader, David Cameron, has moved into dangerous territory, I believe, with some of the language he is using publicly to describe Gordon Brown and Nick Clegg.
As the [...]
Will Cameron move to sack Spelman?
Sun, 17 Aug 2008 17:56:47 +0000
Morus
General
Tories
UK Elections - others
Are her days as Chairwoman of the Conservative Party numbered?
Several of today’s Sunday Papers are running with stories that Caroline Spelman (Con - Meriden) used £100,000 of taxpayers’ money to top-up the salary of her Chief of Staff, Simon Cawte. This would be allowed if his work had been confined solely to supporting her work [...]
What are the politics of GB’s Olympic successes?
Sun, 17 Aug 2008 10:09:20 +0000
Mike Smithson
General
Are there dangers in Labour claiming the credit?
After more extraordinary sessions for the British teams in the Olympic games and it was inevitable, I suppose, that a politician should pop up and claim that they did it.
So step forward minister, Andy Burnham, who’s been arguing on SkyNews that a lot of the success is [...]
Cameron maintains a 20% YouGov lead
Sun, 17 Aug 2008 02:03:52 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election
Betting
Pollsters/polling
But Brown gets a poll boost over Miliband
The general picture from the monthly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times is one of little change although as ever we have the paper seeking to compare its latest numbers with its last poll rather than the last poll from the firm.
The new shares [...]
Advertising and campaign tactics
Sat, 16 Aug 2008 19:00:26 +0000
Morus
General
Media
US Politics
WHITE HOUSE RACE
What is dictating McCain’s media strategy?
In the advertising war waging across the water, John McCain is positively hammering Barack Obama. The Arizona Senator has ploughed significant money into attacking his counterpart from Illinois on a number of fronts; from his advice on inflating tyres to his ‘celebrity’ status, apparently comparable to that of Paris Hilton [...]
What’s the truth behind this picture?
Sat, 16 Aug 2008 11:27:37 +0000
Mike Smithson
General
Is it just a photo-shop job?
The above picture has appeared on the FiveThreeEight site and seems to show Obama’s campaign jet with the name of Ann Veneman as the running mate.
Whether this is a clever photo-shop job or the real thing I do not know. Ann Veneman is a former member of Bush’s cabinet and [...]
Why not hold Glenrothes on the US election day?
Sat, 16 Aug 2008 04:55:01 +0000
Morus
By elections
General
International
Labour
UK Elections - others
WHITE HOUSE RACE
Is this the way to minimise another humiliating defeat?
The Guardian writer Martin Kettle is one of many commentators to say that the timing of the Glenrothes by-election would be a major factor in determining whether or not Brown lives to fight another day.
Since the death of John MacDougall, the Labour majority of 10,664 has [...]
Should an opposition leader be doing this?
Fri, 15 Aug 2008 16:46:05 +0000
Mike Smithson
General
Or will the move just highlight the slowness of the government’s response?
In what appears to be a highly unusual move for an opposition leader it’s been announced that David Cameron is to fly out to the Georgian capital, Tbilisi, tomorrow to meet political leaders.
The move seems designed to show solidarity and international support for [...]
How good are the predictive skills of politics dons?
Fri, 15 Aug 2008 13:46:03 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election
Betting
Is it worth following the university “experts” or the punters?
Back in November 2006 the body for politics academics in Britain’s universities, the Political Studies Association, commissioned a MORI poll to find our how their members viewed the then political situation and the prospects for the parties.
At the time the betting markets had the hung [...]
Should Barack be “watching his back” in Denver
Fri, 15 Aug 2008 02:09:02 +0000
Mike Smithson
Betting
General
WHITE HOUSE RACE
Could the Clintons “hog” the convention limelight?
The big overnight news is that Hillary’s name will be going forward to a roll call vote on the Tuesday leaving open the remote possibility that she could still win. The Obama team has agreed to this as a means of keeping some of the most ardent Hillary supporters [...]
Do the voters always get it right?
Thu, 14 Aug 2008 13:06:27 +0000
Mike Smithson
General
What do we think of “The Fink’s” thesis?
There’s an interesting piece on Times Online today by Daniel Finkelstein who argues that in every general election over the past 80 years the voters have chosen the party that was most right to run the country at the time.
He writes: “The proposition is that in every contest [...]
Will Barack’s V-P be chosen to lock the Clintons in?
Thu, 14 Aug 2008 03:16:43 +0000
Mike Smithson
Betting
WHITE HOUSE RACE
Why is Bill due to speak just before just before the V-P nominee?
An intriguing piece of news overnight is the report that Bill Clinton, whose relationship with Obama has never been easy, has been given the slot at the Denver convention just before the V-P nominee.
This can only mean, surely, that the chosen person is [...]
Can we now rule Mark Warner out?
Wed, 13 Aug 2008 16:51:55 +0000
Mike Smithson
Betting
WHITE HOUSE RACE
With Barack Obama expected to announce at any time the name of his running mate every little bit of detail is being scrutinised to the nth degree to try to guess who the chosen one will be.
One person who had been highly tipped was the former Governor of Virginia and, incidentally, was alongside Obama one [...]
Should Gord dump any Glenrothes hopes here?
Wed, 13 Aug 2008 13:49:58 +0000
Mike Smithson
General
Is there any chance of holding on in the seat next door?
Above are some recycling bins in Glenrothes - the Fife constituency next to Gordon’s where Labour’s next by-election nightmare looks set to take place. This follows the death, reported earlier in the day, of John MacDougall who had been an MP for seven years.
With [...]
Who says polls this far out aren’t good predictors?
Wed, 13 Aug 2008 03:05:31 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election
Pollsters/polling
Is the idea of swingback just an anti-Tory fantasy?
Yesterday on one of the threads I got into an argument with a poster
who asserted “…But no-one seriously expects the actual election to mirror the current polls.”
Well this flies in the face of what has happened at the last three general elections. I know we have [...]
Does Bayh’s Iraq war vote rule the favourite out?
Tue, 12 Aug 2008 21:03:44 +0000
Mike Smithson
General
How could Barack choose someone with this record?
With the announcement of Obama’s V-P choice said to be getting quite imminent big question marks have been raised over the current strong favourite - Evan Bayh - the telegenic senator from Indiana who was a strong Clinton backer.
As the New York Times puts it: “Bayh's support of [...]
What’s the use of poll questions like this?
Tue, 12 Aug 2008 14:55:16 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election
International
Pollsters/polling
What we need to know is how people will vote?
As someone who uses polls to try to predict elections and win bets I’ve always been very wary of polling questions which ask respondents for their opinion - not for an indication of what they would do in an election.
This based on the last two general [...]
Should this be on Gord’s holiday reading list?
Tue, 12 Aug 2008 03:20:36 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election
Labour
Does the government need to do less - but do it better?
A powerful critique by former minister, Nick Raynsford, in the latest New Statesman of the efforts by the Brown government to win back public support has been picked up by many of the papers this morning. Inevitably this is being seen as part [...]
Is Obama thinking of choosing Wes Clark?
Mon, 11 Aug 2008 20:56:01 +0000
Mike Smithson
General
There’s speculation on the US site, VP Watch, this evening that Barack Obama might be considering the former general and 2004 contender for the presidential nomination - Wes Clarke - for the VP slot.
This is the report: “Gen. Wes Clark’s slogan — “Securing America’s Future” — is the theme for the night Barack Obama’s running [...]
Can Gord get to be like this again?
Mon, 11 Aug 2008 16:16:07 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election
Labour
His final PMQs before the 2007 recess and the election U-turn
If you’ve got a few minutes just click on the picture above to watch Brown take the last PMQs of July 2007 when everything was going so right for him.
Watching his body language, listening to a very different intonation in his voice, looking at how [...]
Can Labour ignore Johnson’s awful 2006 focus groups?
Mon, 11 Aug 2008 03:47:07 +0000
Mike Smithson
Betting
Labour
Pollsters/polling
How can they select someone who could make matters worse?
The only point for Labour to go through the pain of changing the leader again is to improve the party’s chances at the next election. In June 2007, as I keep on reminding people, Labour MPs ignored the overwhelming polling evidence, that has since been proved [...]
Will this be the foreign policy trump-card?
Sun, 10 Aug 2008 16:39:12 +0000
Morus
General
International
US Politics
WHITE HOUSE RACE
Is McCain’s plan for a ‘League of Democracies’ the answer?
On May Day of last year, John McCain addressed the Hoover Institution at Stanford University in California. As the Republican primary candidate with the most foreign policy experience, his remarks received a significant amount of attention.
The key idea in the speech was that, if elected President, [...]
Could Miliband be Labour’s Nick Clegg?
Sun, 10 Aug 2008 09:50:48 +0000
Mike Smithson
Labour
Pollsters/polling
Has he really got what it takes to undermine Cameron?
Now there’s a headline, I know, designed to provoke a largish slice of the PB audience but it could be correct.
For every Labour person I’ve spoken to over the past forty-eight hours, and for various reasons that has been quite a few, has told how under [...]
Overview of the Sunday Papers
Sun, 10 Aug 2008 01:00:46 +0000
Morus
General
Round-ups
The conflict in Georgia dominates the front pages
The Sunday Newspapers are focussing heavily on the conflict that has erupted between Russia and Georgia over South Ossetia. The US and UK are affirming Georgia’s territorial rights and calling for a cessation of hostilities. Around 1,000 Georgian troops have been withdrawn from Iraq, as Russia demands that [...]
The Tory YouGov lead drops to 20%
Sat, 09 Aug 2008 22:19:42 +0000
Morus
General Election
General
Labour
Lib Dems
Pollsters/polling
Tories
UK Elections - others
Revised
But more ammunition for those who want Gord out
The News of the World has a poll from YouGov, giving David Cameron’s Conservatives yet another healthy over Gordon Brown’s Labour government - 20 percentage points although it is down a couple of notches from the last survey from the firm nine days ago.
Amongst the [...]
What will be the impact of South Ossetia?
Sat, 09 Aug 2008 14:09:13 +0000
Morus
International
What are the significant implications for US and UK foreign policy?
You could be forgiven for not being immediately familiar with the small mountain region of South Ossetia, and its capital Tskhinvali. Few people last week could have correctly identified it as (legally, at least) a province of Georgia, and fewer still would have known that [...]
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Forecast UK
Predicting the Next UK General Election
Sat, 16 Aug 2008 15:00:58 +0000
Latest Forecast - 16th August 2008
It’s been seven weeks since our last forecast and that time has seen a huge swing to the SNP from Labour in Scotland. Multiple opinion polls are showing that Labour is now facing an electoral wipeout with almost twice as many Scottish voters claiming that they would support the SNP rather than Labour. Our new [...]
Sat, 16 Aug 2008 15:00:58 +0000
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Forecast
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Latest Forecast - 1st July 2008
With almost three weeks passing since our last forecast, a number of the opinion pollsters have issued new polls which continue to confirm the large lead that the Conservatives have over Labour. In addition to this, the Scottish data confirms that the move against Labour is clearly seen north of the border and Labour are [...]
Tue, 01 Jul 2008 17:53:23 +0000
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Latest Forecast - 13th June 2008
Our latest forecast reflects the increasing reporting in UK polling of extraordinarily high Conservative support. We are forecasting over 45% of the vote for David Cameron’s Tories, their best performance in a Westminster election for decades and levels that would produce an extraordinary landslide..
Fri, 13 Jun 2008 15:38:01 +0000
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Latest Forecast - 3rd June 2008
Our latest forecast continues to place the Conservative Party in a strong position with a predicted majority of well over 100. We are forecasting over 43% of the vote for David Cameron’s Tories, their best performance in a Westminster election for decades.
Tue, 03 Jun 2008 15:50:33 +0000
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Latest Forecast - 29th May 2008
Our latest forecast places the Conservative Party in a strong position with a predicted majority of well over 100. We are predicting over 43% of the vote for David Cameron’s Tories, their best performance in a Westminster election for decades.
Fri, 30 May 2008 15:38:22 +0000
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Crewe and Nantwich - Final Forecast
The by-election in Crewe and Nantwich is today and this is the final forecast from Forecast UK.
Thu, 22 May 2008 09:20:44 +0000
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Latest Forecast - 22nd May 2008
Our latest forecast places the Conservative Party in a strong position with a predicted majority of over 100.
Thu, 22 May 2008 09:09:46 +0000
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Latest Forecast - May 19th 2008
Our latest forecast places the Conservative Party in a strong position with a predicted majority of over 100.
Mon, 19 May 2008 12:58:29 +0000
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Crewe and Nantwich - Second Forecast
The by-election in Crewe and Nantwich is only one week away and here at Forecast UK we will be providing a prediction for the vote.
Fri, 16 May 2008 20:18:53 +0000
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Latest Forecast - May 9th 2008
Our latest forecast places the Conservative Party in a strong position with a predicted majority of over 100.
Fri, 09 May 2008 12:04:11 +0000
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