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Parliamentary Licence number: P2006000429

UK Polling Report

Independent Survey and Polling News

YouGov Daily Poll – 37/34/17 – UPDATED

Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 37%(nc), LAB 34%(+2), LDEM 17%(nc). Leaving aside that 2 pointer for the Sunday Times, which in hindsight was probably something of a rogue, it’s the lowest Conservative lead YouGov have shown since October 2007 and the election-that-never-was.
Thu, 11 Mar 2010 22:03:23 +0000
Anthony Wells
AngusReid Voting Intention YouGov YouGov Daily Polls

YouGov Daily Poll – 37/32/17

YouGov’s daily poll has figures of CON 37%(+1), LAB 32%(nc), LDEM 17%(-3). It looks as though that sudden 20% for the Lib Dems yesterday was no more than a blip, and we are back to a 5 point Conservative lead.
Wed, 10 Mar 2010 22:05:31 +0000
Anthony Wells
Voting Intention YouGov YouGov Daily Polls

Northern Ireland polling

Polls in northern Ireland are very rare creatures, not least because they have a rather poor record. There is a strong tendency for them to under-report the proportion of people voting for parties at the more hardline ends of the political spectrum, and over-report those in the centre.
Wed, 10 Mar 2010 17:14:21 +0000
Anthony Wells
Northern Ireland

YouGov daily figures – 36/32/20 – UPDATED

Tonight’s YouGov daily polling has topline figures of CON 36%(-3), LAB 32%(-2), LDEM 20%(+4). After a fortnight or so of leads within one percent of 6 points, we have something ever so slightly different. The lead hasn’t changed much, and is still very easily inside the margin of error of an unchanged six point lead, [...]
Tue, 09 Mar 2010 22:06:11 +0000
Anthony Wells
Harris Voting Intention YouGov YouGov Daily Polls

Populus poll of marginal seats

There is a Populus poll of marginal seats in tomorrow’s Times, Peter Riddell’s commentary is here. The headline figures in the poll is CON 38%, LAB 38% and this has resulted in a flurry of excitement from twitterers, but what it means depends upon which seats were polled.
Mon, 08 Mar 2010 22:53:18 +0000
Anthony Wells
Populus

YouGov Daily Poll – 39/34/16

YouGov’s daily poll has topline figures of CON 39%(+1), LAB 34%(+1), LDEM 16%(-1). The lead remains at 5 points, but both the main parties have increased with the Lib Dems down to 16 points again. As I said at the weekend while writing about ICM’s poll, this is often a difficult time for the Liberal [...]
Mon, 08 Mar 2010 22:07:33 +0000
Anthony Wells
Voting Intention YouGov YouGov Daily Polls

“Opinium” poll in the Express shows 7 point Tory lead – UPDATED

Following new polls from TNS BMRB and a rare sighting of a Harris poll, we have another new entrant – this is shaping up to be an extremely heavily polled election! Anyway, tomorrow’s Express has a new poll from Opinium – who they? Looking at their website here, they seem to be an online outfit [...]
Mon, 08 Mar 2010 20:54:58 +0000
Anthony Wells
Voting Intention

Tonight’s polls

Two new national polls tonight: YouGov’s daily poll in the Sun and a new entrant in the Express – Opinium Research. They have topline figures of CON 37%, LAB 30%, LDEM 16% – but more on that later. We will also have a new poll from Populus in the Times, but it is apparently going [...]
Mon, 08 Mar 2010 20:04:30 +0000
Anthony Wells
Uncategorized

Make your predictions

There are unlikely to be any polls out tonight, so in response to public demand (and organised by Al J), here’s a thread for your general election predictions. Please try and keep this thread for general election predictions, rather than wander off onto other subjects.
Sun, 07 Mar 2010 22:24:32 +0000
Anthony Wells
Uncategorized

New BPIX poll

As well as the ICM and YouGov polls I reported last night, there is also a BPIX poll in the Mail on Sunday. The topline figures with changes from January are CON 36%(-3), LAB 34%(+4), LDEM 18%(nc). The poll was of 5655 people, so large enough to offer cross breaks of marginal seats. In the [...]
Sun, 07 Mar 2010 09:49:15 +0000
Anthony Wells
BPIX Voting Intention

politicalbetting.com

The web's premier resource for political betting.
Thu, 11 Mar 2010 22:06:39 +0000

But PB/Angus Reid has the gap widening to 13 points



Angus Reid for Politicalbetting
Mar 11
Feb 19


CONSERVATIVES
39%
38%


LABOUR
26%
26%


LIB DEMS
18%
19%


LAB to CON swing from 2005
8%
7.5%


So why the difference between the two online pollsters?
Here’s the second poll of the night - the exclusive Angus Reid one for Politicalbetting - which is showing a radically different picture than YouGov a few minutes ago.
On the face of it this is [...]

Thu, 11 Mar 2010 22:06:39 +0000
Mike Smithson
General

Labour gets two points closer in the daily poll



YouGov poll (The Sun)
Mar 11
Mar 10


CONSERVATIVES
37%
37%


LABOUR
34%
32%


LIB DEMS
17%
17%


LAB to CON swing from 2005
3%
4%


Within the MOE - but will it affect the narrative ?
So here it is - tonight’s daily poll which was not as falsely reported by a commenter earlier in the evening. This might give some comfort to Labour but I guess that all parties [...]

Thu, 11 Mar 2010 21:59:56 +0000
Mike Smithson
AngusReid Voting Intention YouGov YouGov Daily Polls General

A special cartoon by Marf


Yet more polls on the way!
Marf, PB’s cartoonist, has been totally tied up for months in a big project but she’s still keen to maintain her links with PB.
The above drawing was done for the site’s 5th birthday last year and hasn’t been published before. So as we wait for tonight’s polling news I thought [...]

Thu, 11 Mar 2010 18:13:41 +0000
Mike Smithson
Voting Intention YouGov YouGov Daily Polls General Election About the site Pollsters/polling

Forget voting intention: What about the country’s “mood”?

Research by Dr Jane Green and Dr Will Jennings, Manchester University
A new measure by researchers at the University of Manchester shows a significant problem for Gordon Brown: the mood of the country is against Labour on policy competence. It is as serious for Gordon Brown as it was for the Conservatives before Labour’s landslide victory [...]

Thu, 11 Mar 2010 12:49:20 +0000
Double Carpet
Northern Ireland Guest Contribution

Take part in the PB user survey


All views are welcome especially from lurkers
In conjunction with Woodnewton Associates we are carrying out a survey of PB users to find out more about ourselves, how we might improve the site and also to get a feel for the political make-up of the PB community.
This is the first time we’ve ever attempted anything like [...]

Thu, 11 Mar 2010 03:30:01 +0000
Mike Smithson
Harris Voting Intention YouGov YouGov Daily Polls About the site General

Tories daily poll lead goes up by a point



YouGov daily poll (The Sun)
Mar 10
Mar 9


CONSERVATIVES
37%
36%


LABOUR
32%
32%


LIB DEMS
17%
20%


LAB to CON swing from 2005
4%
3.5%


And the Lib Dems slump after last night’s boost
So the Labour share remains stable tonight with the Tories edging up and the Lib Dems taking quite a hit.
This will bring some relief to the blue team which yesterday touched a two and [...]

Wed, 10 Mar 2010 21:59:16 +0000
Mike Smithson
Populus General Election Pollsters/polling

Andy Cooke on the UNS - Part 3


UNS - Exploring the Distortions
I’ve put together a short series on UNS – what it is, what’s its track record, and what levels of distortion have occurred in recent elections. This is part three of three.
It is an article of faith that the electoral system is inherently biased against the Conservative Party. Certainly [...]

Wed, 10 Mar 2010 17:51:55 +0000
Double Carpet
Voting Intention YouGov YouGov Daily Polls General Election Guest Contribution

Will ICM remain “The Gold Standard”?


Look at how out of line it was in March 1997
One of the phrases you hear time and time again about ICM’s polling is that it is “The Gold Standard”.
This came from its performance at the 1997 general election when it was wildly out of line with everybody else and ended up being proved right. [...]

Wed, 10 Mar 2010 13:26:47 +0000
Mike Smithson
Voting Intention General

Hung Parliament? Punters not convinced


Come on you guys - follow the media narrative?
After doing my posting on the Populus marginals poll early yesterday I thought I’d try to make a quick buck by betting £257 on the “no overall majority” option in the Betfair overall majority market.
The price I got, was 1.9/1 and my reading was that this [...]

Wed, 10 Mar 2010 06:06:09 +0000
Mike Smithson
Uncategorized General Election Betting

All parties take a hit with Harris



Harris poll for The Metro
Mar 9
Feb 22


CONSERVATIVES
37%
39%


LABOUR
29%
30%


LIB DEMS
18%
22%


LAB to CON swing from 2005
5.5%
6%


And “others” soar in another online poll
As the polling deluge continues there’s another survey out this evening from Harris Interactive for the Metro. The figures are above with the big move, surely, being a huge increase in the numbers saying that they will [...]

Tue, 09 Mar 2010 22:56:32 +0000
Mike Smithson
Uncategorized General Election PB Angus Reid polls Pollsters/polling

Big boost for Nick Clegg in the daily poll



YouGov daily poll (The Sun)
Mar 9
Mar 8


CONSERVATIVES
36%
39%


LABOUR
32%
34%


LIB DEMS
20%
16%


LAB to CON swing from 2005
3.5%
4%


But why have the Tories and Labour gone down?
Inevitably the daily poll is going to throw up some odd quirks and this evening we see big moves by all the main parties.
As far as I can see the reason that the Lib [...]

Tue, 09 Mar 2010 21:59:31 +0000
Mike Smithson
BPIX Voting Intention General

Let’s all pat ourselves on the back


Evening Standard
“….But the kind of scrutiny to which certain punters subject opinion polls now is useful — and greater than that of some political obsessives. When Kellner appeared for a live online discussion on politicalbetting.com last week, he was grilled by dozens of punters probing the finer points of YouGov’s weighting system. It was, compared [...]

Tue, 09 Mar 2010 19:39:07 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election About the site

Opinium publish their historic polls



Notice how others are large - like Angus Reid
The new kid on the polling block, Opinium, has published its historic polls and it is interesting to track how it compares with everybody else.
The striking feature for me is that it consistently has a high share for others - very much in line with the PB/Angus [...]

Tue, 09 Mar 2010 13:45:11 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election PB Angus Reid polls Pollsters/polling

Populus marginals poll has the Tories just short



Populus marginals poll (Times)
F/W Mar 7
2005


CONSERVATIVES
38%
31.5


LABOUR
38%
45.3


LIB DEMS
??%
??


LAB to CON swing
6.7%



Is a hung parliament now looking more likely?
We’ve now got details of the Times Populus poll for March which is not a national voting intention survey but one that is focussed entirely on Tory’s targets from Labour numbers 51 - 150. It’s assumed that the first [...]

Tue, 09 Mar 2010 02:57:24 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election Betting Pollsters/polling

Tories and Labour move up one in the daily poll




YouGov daily poll: The Sun
08/03/10
Prev


CONSERVATIVES
39%
38


LABOUR
34%
33


LIB DEMS
16%
17


LAB to CON swing
4%
4%



So YouGov continues to show a Labour share that is higher than other pollsters and the 34% means that Labour is hanging onto seventeen out eighteen of those who backed Blair’s party in 2005. That is certainly not supported by the splits linked to past vote reported [...]

Mon, 08 Mar 2010 21:59:15 +0000
Mike Smithson
General

New pollster has 37/30/16




“Opinium” for the Express
08/03/10
2005


CONSERVATIVES
37%
33.2


LABOUR
30%
36.2


LIB DEMS
16%
22.7


LAB to CON swing
5%
??



This is a new one on me and needs further investigating. According to reports “The poll was taken by Opinium from 5th to 8th March using what is described as “their research panel” of 1960 individuals.”
I wonder whether they poll the same 1960 individuals again and again? We [...]

Mon, 08 Mar 2010 20:49:20 +0000
Mike Smithson
General

Which way will Populus be going?


Will tonight’s poll be in ICM or YouGov territory?
After a weekend which has seen two very different views from the pollsters we are due the March Populus survey for the Times this evening.
The big question is whether it will have figures in the YouGov family territory (down to 2% with YouGov/BPIX) or that of [...]

Mon, 08 Mar 2010 17:20:36 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election Pollsters/polling

Q. “How important is it to you personally who wins the General Election?”


Ipsos-MORI
What does this say about potential turnout?
Two of the great things about Ipsos-MORI is that it has been political polling in the UK for longer than any other firm with a website that has a mine of information going back decades. Another good thing is that the firm’s non-voting intention questions are generally very well [...]

Mon, 08 Mar 2010 14:36:32 +0000
Mike Smithson
General

Cameron hit most as all the leader ratings drop


“Is Brown/Cameron/Clegg doing well-badly as PM/CON leader/LD leader ..”




“Well”
“Badly“
+/-


Brown
36% (36)
60% (58)
-2%


Cameron
48% (50)
44% (39)
-7%


Clegg
43% (42)
31% (28)
-2%



Are the Tories right to make Brown the issue?
This is the second of my planned weekly threads on what many pundits believe are the best guide to forecasting general elections - the leader approval ratings. The comparisons above are the [...]

Mon, 08 Mar 2010 06:12:58 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election Campaigning Gordon Brown Leader approval ratings

How do hung parliament advocates deal with this?


Times online
What do these say about hung parliaments and the LDs?
Reproduced above are a couple of findings from today’s Sunday Times YouGov poll which I think might have signficance.
The first is a form of forced choice question where the responses are Lib Dem supporters are the most interesting. Just comparing their answers then support [...]

Sun, 07 Mar 2010 19:09:33 +0000
Mike Smithson
General

Andy Cooke on the UNS - Part 2


Uniform National Swing – the track record
I’ve put together a short series on UNS – what it is, what’s its track record, and what levels of distortion have occurred in recent elections. This is part two of three.
When did UNS break? It can’t simply be one of those myths that it’s fairly accurate [...]

Sun, 07 Mar 2010 12:52:49 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Guest Contribution

Will you be betting on the YouGov family or ICM?


CON 36% (33.2)
LAB 34% (36.2)
LD 18% (22.7)
Comparisons are with the 2005 result
LAB>CON swing on 2005: 2.5%
Second YouGov family poll has it down to 2 points
There was another poll from the YouGov family overnight - this time from the firm that trades under the name of BPIX. It’s the first from them this year [...]

Sun, 07 Mar 2010 04:44:55 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election Betting

ICM has the blues back in the 40s


CON 40% (37)
LAB 31% (30)
LD 18% (20)
LAB>CON swing on 2005: 6%
Has the move to Labour run out of steam?
A new ICM poll for the News of the World goes very much against the trend of the past few weeks and has the Tories increasing their lead over Labour to the psychologically key level [...]

Sat, 06 Mar 2010 19:47:29 +0000
Mike Smithson
Pollsters/polling

How much can we read into this?


British Election Study
But could Labour activists now be more motivated?
In the next few weeks we’ll be seeing a lot of data about difference aspects of the campaign from the British Election Study - a big academic programme involving a number of universities and quite a lot of polling.
In this posting Professor Paul Whiteley writes: [...]

Sat, 06 Mar 2010 13:22:06 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election Campaigning Pollsters/polling

Will there be a pre-election Budget?


Is there no date because they can’t agree the contents?
Last year’s budget was delivered on 22 April, the latest ‘regular’ budget since they reverted to their traditional Spring slot. That date was announced on 12 February. More than three weeks beyond the equivalent date this year, there has been no announcement as to when the [...]

Sat, 06 Mar 2010 04:26:11 +0000
David Herdson
General Election

Tories take an 8 point lead with TNS-BMRB


CON 39% (33.2)
LAB 31% (36.2)
LD 19% (22.7)
LAB>CON swing on 2005: 5.7%
Yet another pollster enters the fray
There’s a new voting intention survey out tonight from the Edinburgh-firm, TNS-BMRB, which has just started doing general election polls for the whole of Britain. The firm is well-established in Scotland and does regular political surveys north of [...]

Fri, 05 Mar 2010 19:55:57 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election Pollsters/polling

YouGov seeks to placate its weightings critics


What do we think of the Anthony Wells explanation?
YouGov staffer and operator of UKPollingReport, Anthony Wells, has put up a long post seeking to answer some of the points about the firm’s weightings that have appeared here in recent days.
The essence of his article is that there have been adjustments to deal with the new [...]

Fri, 05 Mar 2010 17:05:00 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election General Pollsters/polling

YouGov points to disproportionate swing in Wales


CON 29% (21.4)
LAB 37% (42.7)
LD 12% (18.4)
PC 14% (12.6)
But the Tories are down on January
A new YouGov poll of Welsh Westminster voting intentions points to a 6.6% swing to the Tories since the May 2005 general election and the possibility of eight gains. The comparisons above are from the last [...]

Fri, 05 Mar 2010 12:41:33 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election Betting Tories

What about the firms that haven’t changed since 2005?


Will ICM and Populus be going with the flow?
One of the difficulties looking at current polling is that YouGov are doing so many surveys that they almost drown out everybody else - and we have not heard for some time from the two firms, ICM and Populus, which will be going into this election using [...]

Fri, 05 Mar 2010 03:18:19 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election Pollsters/polling

No change in the daily poll Tory lead


CON 38% (38)
LAB 32% (32)
LD 17%(19)
So what IS going to move the numbers?
The incredibly consistent daily poll continues to remain very stable - unmoved by bullygate and now by Michael Ashcroft - that you begin to wonder what could change the numbers.
The Tories would feel much more comfortable if they were back in the [...]

Thu, 04 Mar 2010 21:59:08 +0000
Mike Smithson
General

Another poll has the Tories doing better in the marginals

UPDATED
But the swing is only two points better
A YouGov poll for Channel 4 in 60 key seats by YouGov has the gap between the parties down to just two points - but given what happened in the seats in 2005 this represents a 6.5% swing.
This compares with a swing of 4.5% in recent national [...]

Thu, 04 Mar 2010 17:08:31 +0000
Mike Smithson
General

So where does the Ashcroft story go from here?


BBC News
There’s been news within the past half hour that the Electoral Commission is to rule that donations to the Tory party by a company owned the controversial deputy chair, Michael Ashcroft, have been declared to be legal.
The body has been examining 173 donations totally more than five million pounds in the five years [...]

Thu, 04 Mar 2010 12:22:38 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election Tories

Did Nick Clegg get his first “debate dividend”?


What’ll be the consequences in the marginals?
Did I miss the glaringly obvious when I wrote that I did not know what had caused the 3% boost for the Lib Dems in the overnight YouGov daily poll for the Sun?
For the reason was plain to see as Mike L commented on the previous thread: “Last [...]

Thu, 04 Mar 2010 03:01:30 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election Leaders' TV debates Lib Dems Pollsters/polling

The Tory daily poll lead moves up a notch


CON 38% (38)
LAB 32% (33)
LD 19%(16)
And the Lib Dems move up three
Apart from that blip at the weekend when the Tory lead slipped to just two points the daily poll has had pretty stable figures and tonight’s numbers are no exception. The Tories stable, Labour down one and the Lib Dems up three.
Given [...]

Wed, 03 Mar 2010 21:59:06 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election Pollsters/polling

Is this how the capital will look on May 7th?


Reproduced from the London Evening Standard
CON 39% (32)
LAB 35% (39)
LD 17%(22)
YouGov finds a bigger Tory swing in London
A new YouGov poll for tonight’s London Evening Standard suggests that the Tories might be on target to make a dozen gains in the capital at the election. The shares are above with the changes since the [...]

Wed, 03 Mar 2010 17:43:15 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election London and local elections Pollsters/polling

Forecast UK

Predicting the Next UK General Election
Thu, 11 Mar 2010 22:06:39 +0000

Latest Forecast – 5th March 2010

Forecast UK Tracker


Sat, 06 Mar 2010 09:22:42 +0000
Forecast UK
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Latest Forecast – 26th February

Forecast UK Tracker


Fri, 26 Feb 2010 13:34:51 +0000
Forecast UK
AngusReid Voting Intention YouGov YouGov Daily Polls General Forecast General Bad News Week Bold Prediction Caption Conservatives East London General Election Predictions George Galloway Greens Labour Vote Lib Dem Liberal Democrats National Vote Opinion Polls Plaid Cymru Popular Vote Predominant Position Scotland Snp Uk Tracker Westminster

Can Brown still hold a March 25th Election?

The simple answer is, yes. Here is the timetable from the official Commons’ Briefing Paper, together with the relevant dates.


Fri, 26 Feb 2010 11:34:10 +0000
Forecast UK
Voting Intention YouGov YouGov Daily Polls General Election About the site Pollsters/polling Comment General Appointment Ballot Papers Bank Holiday Briefing Paper Dissolution Gordon Brown Legislation Little Time March 23rd March 26th Medical Emergencies Monday Afternoon Nomination Papers Northern Ireland Objections Parliament Polling Day Receipt Relevant Dates Simple Answer St Patrick Timetable Tuesday Afternoon Withdrawals Writ

Latest Forecast – 19th February 2010

Forecast UK Tracker


Fri, 19 Feb 2010 09:53:19 +0000
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Latest Forecast – 12th February 2010

Forecast UK Tracker


Fri, 12 Feb 2010 09:40:23 +0000
Forecast UK
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Latest Forecast – 5th February 2010

Forecast UK Tracker


Fri, 05 Feb 2010 15:00:57 +0000
Forecast UK
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Latest Forecast – 29th January 2010

Forecast UK Tracker


Fri, 29 Jan 2010 14:53:34 +0000
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Latest Forecast – 22nd January 2010

Forecast UK Tracker


Fri, 22 Jan 2010 08:30:34 +0000
Forecast UK
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Latest Forecast – 15th January 2010

Forecast UK Tracker


Fri, 15 Jan 2010 15:53:08 +0000
Forecast UK
Uncategorized General Election Betting Forecast General Cameron Campaigning Caption Conservatives Core Vote Current Position Disastrous Defeat East London Fortnight General Election Predictions George Galloway Greens Labour Vote Liberal Democrats National Vote Northern Ireland Poll Figures Popular Vote Sign Of Labour Situation Changes Snp Tories Tory Party Uk Tracker

Latest Forecast – 8th January 2010

The second of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote, shows dramatic movement in public opinion over the past week. The failed Labour leadership coup has damaged the Government and our forecast has been adjusted to present a much more confident picture for Dave Cameron’s Conservatives.


Fri, 08 Jan 2010 11:56:36 +0000
Forecast UK
Uncategorized General Election PB Angus Reid polls Pollsters/polling General 8th January Campaigning Conservatives Core Vote Current Position Dave Cameron Dramatic Movement General Election Predictions Labour Leadership Labour Vote Liberal Democrats Media Coverage National Vote Poll Figures Popular Vote Sign Of Labour Situation Changes Snp Tories Tory Party

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