home
The Queen's speech
Down load this for your web site from here
Latest Parliamentary Debates
Down load this for your web site from here
Latest Public Bills Debates
All MPs and Lords
Every Constituency
Every Local Authority
Devolved Representatives
Every Political Party
Latest Election Leaflets
New legislation and Statutory Instruments
Enter name of committee to find the members
Down load this for your web site from here
Latest Written Ministerial Statements
Down load this for your web site from here
Parliamentary Division Votes
Early day Motions
Search petition the PM.
Download this for your web site from here
Petitions to the Prime Minister
What the Government is Saying
Government Papers
UK Polling Reports
Local Government Association News
Public Sector News
National Statistics
National Audit Office
HM Treasury and Bank of England News
Electorial Commission News and Consultations
Information Commissioner News
Freedom of Information Request
Your Freedom
National Arcives News and Latest Releases
British Issues
Poltical News
Political Books
Travel Advice
Consultations
The latest Consultations
List of Departments
International
United Nations Says
World Quango Reports
UN Food and Agrigulture
UN World Food Programme
World Political News
Parliamentary Licence number: P2006000429
|
UK Polling Report
Independent Survey and Polling News
Tony Blair’s legacy
The Sun this morning has some polling from YouGov on attitudes towards Tony Blair three years after his departure. 47% of people think that Blair was a good Prime Minister, 46% that he was a bad one – probably not a bad record. On balance, people tended to think that Blair was likeable (by 57% [...]
Thu, 02 Sep 2010 12:00:30 +0000
Anthony Wells
AV referendum
Labour
Voting Intention
YouGov
YouGov/Sun – 43/38/11
Tonight’s YouGov voting intention has topline figures of CON 43%, LAB 38%, LDEM 11%. This is the lowest Liberal Democrat level of support recorded since straight before and after the resignation of Menzies Campbell, back in 2007. I’m slightly wary about focusing too much on extremes in polls, almost by definitions they are likely to [...]
Tue, 31 Aug 2010 21:13:53 +0000
Anthony Wells
Voting Intention
YouGov
Things you may have missed
Here are some bits and pieces from polls you may have missed.
Sat, 28 Aug 2010 18:22:43 +0000
Anthony Wells
Education
ICM
YouGov
Latest Welsh voting intentions
There is a new YouGov welsh poll for ITV Wales, full tables are here. Topline voting intentions with changes from YouGov’s poll last month are.
Thu, 26 Aug 2010 18:54:47 +0000
Anthony Wells
Wales
YouGov
YouGov’s government approval turns negative
I don’t normally do a post everyday on YouGov’s daily tracking figures – it is, after all, the trend that counts, not the change from day to day. This one is worth noting though. Following on from the net approval rating of zero yesterday, YouGov’s net approval for the government tonight is minus 2 – [...]
Tue, 24 Aug 2010 22:36:01 +0000
Anthony Wells
Voting Intention
YouGov
Latest YouGov voting intentions
Today’s YouGov voting intentions and government approval ratings are the worst for the Conservatives since the election. The net government approval rating is zero – 40% of people approve of the government’s performance, but 40% of people disapprove. On voting intention the Conservative lead is down to 2 points, the lowest since the election campaign. [...]
Tue, 24 Aug 2010 10:29:39 +0000
Anthony Wells
Voting Intention
YouGov
Latest Ipsos MORI Scottish poll
Just realised I’ve missed an Ipsos MORI poll of Scottish voting intentions here, MORI’s first Scottish voting figures since the general election.
Sun, 22 Aug 2010 23:05:18 +0000
Anthony Wells
MORI
Scotland
30% think Dr David Kelly was murdered
At the start of the week the Daily Mail ran a headline saying only 20% of people thought David Kelly committed suicide. The Mail claimed it was an overwhelming rejection of the official verdict – it wasn’t actually quite as overwhelming as it seems, by only mentioning the 20% the Mail implied that a large [...]
Fri, 20 Aug 2010 11:17:01 +0000
Anthony Wells
Harris
YouGov
New YouGov and ComRes polls
Two more polls from last night. ComRes has a new voting intention poll for the Mirror and GMTV. Topline figures are CON 39%(nc), LAB 33%(nc), LDEM 15%(-1), so virtually no change from their poll in the Indy a week and a half ago, and still showing Labour somewhat lower than other companies.
Wed, 18 Aug 2010 08:12:22 +0000
Anthony Wells
AV referendum
Communicate
ICM
Voting Intention
YouGov
ICM show Labour and Tories neck and neck
There is a new ICM poll in the Guardian tomorrow that probably isn’t what David Cameron hoped for on his 100th day in power. Topline voting intention figures are CON 37%(-1), LAB 37%(+3), LDEM 18%(-1). This is the first time an ICM poll has shown Labour catching the Conservatives since October 2007 and the election [...]
Tue, 17 Aug 2010 19:21:59 +0000
Anthony Wells
ICM
Voting Intention
|
politicalbetting.com
The web's premier resource for political betting.
Fri, 03 Sep 2010 02:23:51 +0000
Has the BBC boss fallen for the old long lens trick?
This is what his memo looks like enlarged.
See Daily Mail here.
Fri, 03 Sep 2010 02:16:42 +0000
admin
General
The PB AV debate: Part 1
“Dyed In Some Wool” puts the case for voting NO
When considering the upcoming referendum, AV seems to me not only to be the wrong answer, but the referendum itself is the wrong question. Let’s look at the main reasons for considering a yes vote.
I want a more proportional system
AV is not proportional [...]
Thu, 02 Sep 2010 18:30:13 +0000
Mike Smithson
AV referendum
Labour
Voting Intention
YouGov
General
Does opening the wounds favour David or Ed?
Betfair Politics
Thu, 02 Sep 2010 12:15:16 +0000
admin
Voting Intention
YouGov
General
Is now the time to bet on Hague?
Is he now value for Tory leader?
Just as you can buy bargain stocks in the midst of a stock market panic, there is rarely a better time to bet on a politician than when they are seen as being in trouble. Of course, if the trouble is serious then they might be best avoided, but [...]
Thu, 02 Sep 2010 03:11:13 +0000
Morus
Education
ICM
YouGov
General
So what did we learn from the Blair interview?
…and what impact has today had on the leadership race?
Hague statement
William Hague has issued a statement after the resignation of his special assistant Christopher Myers, which is available here.
Mike Smithson is on holiday and has very limited internet connection
Double Carpet
Wed, 01 Sep 2010 19:03:36 +0000
Double Carpet
Wales
YouGov
Coalition
Labour
Labour leadership
The Blair-Brown drama: Tony’s story
This is from the Press Association report:
“Tony Blair lays bare the divisions at the top of the Labour Party with the publication of his memoirs, focusing attention on his relationship with “maddening” Gordon Brown.
Former prime minister Mr Blair’s book, A Journey, reveals the depth of the rift between the figures who dominated British politics between [...]
Wed, 01 Sep 2010 12:00:51 +0000
Mike Smithson
Voting Intention
YouGov
General
What’s happening across the Atlantic?
Will Obama lose both the House and the Senate?
So with Our Genial Host taking a well-deserved break in France, the inevitability of major political news breaking in the coming days is assured. We’ll try our best to be as responsive to news stories as possible (though I suspect Tony Blair’s book - with all proceeds [...]
Wed, 01 Sep 2010 03:30:37 +0000
Morus
Voting Intention
YouGov
General
While you are going to be facing the Blair barrage…..
Amazon.co.uk Widgets
…I’m off to France for a few days
First thing in the morning we are taking the Eurostar to Paris and then the TGV to Bordeaux for a short break. As I think I mentioned I had a small operation in July and this took a lot out of me.
I won’t won’t be [...]
Tue, 31 Aug 2010 20:11:05 +0000
Mike Smithson
MORI
Scotland
General
How long will the TB-GB psycho-drama plague Labour?
Daily Mail
Is everything still being defined by the ex-leaders ?
The big news for Labour as we move into September should be the start of voting in the first contested election for a leader since 1994.
Instead the media remain obsessed with the Blair-Brown years and “what really went on”. Just look at this week. [...]
Tue, 31 Aug 2010 13:13:35 +0000
Mike Smithson
Harris
YouGov
General Election
Betting
Gordon Brown
Labour leadership
Could Britain and France really share their carrier fleets?
The Sun
Is this taking defence cuts too far?
The main news on the front page of the Times which is covered at length in its sister paper the Sun, is about a plan for Britain and France to “share” their aircraft carriers as part of massive economy measure.
The idea is that Britain would scrap or [...]
Mon, 30 Aug 2010 23:59:38 +0000
Mike Smithson
AV referendum
Communicate
ICM
Voting Intention
YouGov
Coalition
Cuts
So should Dave call Boris’s 800m pound bluff?
Guardian
Who’ll win the old-Etonian stand-off over Cross-Rail?
The big development over Boris that Morus only touched on briefly in the last post was the huge row that’s apparently developing between Johnson (Eton and Balliol College Oxford) and Cameron (Eton and Brasenose College Oxford) over plans by Osborne (St. Paul’s and Magdalen College Oxford) to force a [...]
Mon, 30 Aug 2010 12:49:57 +0000
Mike Smithson
ICM
Voting Intention
General Election
Betting
David Cameron
Labour
Lib Dems
London and local elections
Why would Boris run for re-election?
And who else could be the Tory candidate?
NB This necessarily-long article was written before this story broke this evening. How better to avoid running again than to resign over a fight with Cameron about cuts?
When I last wrote about the 2010 London Mayoral election in May 2009 (smugly noting my bet on Oona King at [...]
Mon, 30 Aug 2010 03:02:31 +0000
Morus
General
How do general election LD voters view things now?
The ICM approval ratings break-down
table.tableizer-table {border: 4px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;} .tableizer-table td {padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #ccc;}
.tableizer-table th {background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold;}
Coalition – overall?
Good job
Bad Job
Don’t know
All sampled
46
36
18
Current CON voters
83
5
11
Current LAB voters
21
62
16
Current LD voters
59
25
16
May 6 LD voters
48
37
15
table.tableizer-table {border: 4px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, [...]
Sun, 29 Aug 2010 14:46:24 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election
Coalition
David Cameron
Leader approval ratings
Nick Clegg
Pollsters/polling
Will the MiliD-MiliE outcome be a verdict on NuLab?
…are these headlines helpful to the younger brother?
With voting in Labour’s election due to start on Wednesday two papers at the “quality” end of the market have front pages that are dominated by the relations between the US and the UK during the Iraq War and its aftermath.
The Telegraph says that it has been told [...]
Sun, 29 Aug 2010 05:23:31 +0000
Mike Smithson
Betting
Gordon Brown
Labour leadership
How should Labour’s electors regard this?
Guardian
Is this a Number 10 bluff - or a double bluff?
Just four days to go before voting starts in Labour’s election the Guardian is reporting that the contender that David Cameron fears most is David Miliband.
Now how should we treat this? Is it on the level; is it a bluff or is it a [...]
Sat, 28 Aug 2010 13:17:20 +0000
Mike Smithson
David Cameron
General
Labour leadership
How does Miliband handle the memoirists?
Amazon.co.uk Widgets
How difficult will their revelations make it for him?
History repeats itself, the first time as tragedy, the second as autobiography. Or something like that. It seems almost obligatory now for retired cabinet ministers to set down their version of the time in office, their influence on events and their view of - amongst [...]
Sat, 28 Aug 2010 01:57:33 +0000
David Herdson
Labour
What’ll Farage tell next week’s conference?
Is he’s going to run to get his old job back?
So far there’s been very little activity on the next UKIP leader market and only Ladbrokes have deemed it important enough to quote prices and lay bets.
At the moment everybody’s waiting to see if ex-leader, Nigel Farage, will enter the fray in the fight to [...]
Fri, 27 Aug 2010 14:20:36 +0000
Mike Smithson
General
Will increasing media coverage help the outsiders?
How many will actually use 2nd, 3rd and 4th choices?
In just 29 days time the results of Labour’s leadership contest will be announced after a prolonged battle that has only this week started to attract serious attention from the mainstream media.
This lack of attention has probably helped David Miliband because what polling there has [...]
Fri, 27 Aug 2010 02:33:04 +0000
Mike Smithson
Betting
Labour leadership
WANTED: Someone to put the NO case
OpenDemocracy
Could you write a PB guest slot?
At the start of September I’m going to be out of the country for a few days and I’m setting up some guest slots in advance. Rod Crosby has been commissioned to write a “The case for voting YES” in the AV referendum and I’m looking for someone [...]
Thu, 26 Aug 2010 19:06:27 +0000
Mike Smithson
Guest slot
Referendum
What will the Milibands do about Gordon?
Should they back him for International Development Secretary?
According to Guido Gordon Brown is taking soundings about making a return to the Labour front bench as Shadow International Development Secretary.
When Labour is in opposition the members of the shadow cabinet are not decided by the leader but by the parliamentary which votes on the 19 places. [...]
Thu, 26 Aug 2010 11:32:06 +0000
Mike Smithson
Gordon Brown
Is Labour getting it wrong on the Lib Dems?
Guardian
Should the red team look at its own recent history?
One of the most provocative political columns this morning is John Harris’s look at Labour’s view of the Lib Dems by in the Guardian.
He concludes:”… Miserable poll ratings may serve to bind the Lib Dems in, for fear of another election and a real [...]
Thu, 26 Aug 2010 03:27:47 +0000
Mike Smithson
Coalition
Labour
Lib Dems
How big a development is this?
News Statesman
Wed, 25 Aug 2010 17:07:21 +0000
Mike Smithson
Labour leadership
How will the coalition deal with Harriet’s landmine?
Is her equalities measure going to make it harder to govern?
If you’ve got five minutes then listen to Treasury minister Mark Hoban on the Today programme this morning as he was pressed on whether the Treasury had conducted a formal study assessing the impact of the cuts on ethnic minorities ahead of June’s budget.
For one [...]
Wed, 25 Aug 2010 12:56:50 +0000
Mike Smithson
Coalition
Is it really getting personal between the brothers?
Independent
..or is the media trying to breathe life into the contest?
After a long period when Labour’s election has failed to attract much media attention it’s all change this morning with several papers highlighting how “the gloves are coming off” between the brothers.
It makes good copy, of course, and the weird spectacle of two siblings slugging [...]
Wed, 25 Aug 2010 06:17:56 +0000
Mike Smithson
General
Labour leadership
The betting moves back a notch to EdM
Betfair Politics
table.tableizer-table {border: 4px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;} .tableizer-table td {padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #ccc;}
.tableizer-table th {background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold;}
Candidate
Best bookie price
Betfair Back – Lay
David Miliband
2/5
1.43 – 1.45
Ed Miliband
9/4
3.4 – 3.5
Ed Balls
66/1
110 - 140
Andy Burnham
80/1
70 – 130
Diane Abbott
150/1
220 – 390
If the [...]
Tue, 24 Aug 2010 19:30:33 +0000
Mike Smithson
Betting
Labour leadership
Sean Fear's Friday slots
UK Elections - others
What’s the significance of the ratings cross-over point?
YouGov
The government’s net approval rating drops to zero
The big polling news in the past twenty-fours hours has been the move to a zero rating, for the first time since the election, in the YouGov government approval rating.
The question is a straightforward “Do you approve or disapprove of the government’s record to date?” The latest [...]
Tue, 24 Aug 2010 12:24:42 +0000
Mike Smithson
Pollsters/polling
Is the Justice Secretary Nick Clegg’s secret weapon?
Guardian
Has Clarke become the Lib Dems’ most popular Tory?
On the afternoon of Monday September 20th Nick Clegg will have to make the speech of his life to his party gathering in Liverpool in what looks set to be THE event of the conference season. For the reaction of his audience could determine how long the [...]
Tue, 24 Aug 2010 02:17:33 +0000
admin
Coalition
Lib Dems
Nick Clegg
Tories
Does the ‘No’ campaign have the edge?
Tom Harris blog
Who will win the AV referendum?
News broke overnight that Matthew Elliott, founder of the Taxpayers’ Alliance and BigBrotherWatch, will be leading the ‘No 2 AV’ campaign in the forthcoming referendum on electoral reform.
Guido has linked to the a betting exchange suggesting a ‘Yes’ win at time of writing. However, if you wander over [...]
Mon, 23 Aug 2010 12:09:55 +0000
Morus
Betting
Lib Dems
Referendum
Is Jackie Ashley right to chastise her party?
Guardian
Could Labour be wrong by “playing nasty”?
One of most provocative “Monday columns” in the the papers this morning is from Jacky Ashley in the Guardian in which she takes Labour to task for not reading reading the public mood right.
She argues: “Labour is playing bad politics. The leadership campaign is turning into a [...]
Mon, 23 Aug 2010 04:36:05 +0000
admin
General Election
Coalition
Labour leadership
Lib Dems
Are the blues getting most hurt in Scotland?
Ipsos-MORI
But does MORI give a bit of a relief to the yellows?
In the build up to what one commentator is now calling “Super Thursday” - the elections on May 5th 2011 - we are going to see a fair bit of polling. For on that that day there’ll be elections to the Welsh [...]
Sun, 22 Aug 2010 15:13:24 +0000
admin
General Election
Coalition
Pollsters/polling
Scotland
Would this outcome have scuppered a CON-LD deal?
British Election Study
Would it have taken away the “TINA defence”?
Those old to remember the Thatcher years will recall what came to be known as TINA - “There is no alterative” - her refrain when her policies were challenged. Well I wonder whether TINA has returned as the fact of the coalition continues to dominate [...]
Sun, 22 Aug 2010 02:30:19 +0000
admin
General Election
Coalition
Referendum
Where now for Kennedy?
Has Labour misplayed its defections game?
It’s well known that Charles Kennedy was not happy with the Lib Dem-Conservative coalition deal when it was put together and by all accounts, remains so. That’s been reinforced by a spate of newspaper articles today that suggest that he might be, or might have been, considering defecting to Labour.
As [...]
Sat, 21 Aug 2010 12:44:44 +0000
David Herdson
General
Australia 2010: Election Night
ABC News
Could this cliffhanger election be heading for a hung parliament?
The babies have been kissed, the staged events are done, the former leaders have made their cameo appearances (the knifing of Rudd the “elephant in the room” for Labor), and the psychic animals have had their say (the octopus and crocodile for Gillard, and the [...]
Sat, 21 Aug 2010 06:45:24 +0000
Double Carpet
International
So which brother will get the Balls 2nd preference?
Surely who he chooses will win?
Fri, 20 Aug 2010 20:08:26 +0000
admin
General
Do we agree with Nick on this?
BBC News
Would it have been worse without the coalition deal?
In a Radio 4 interview to be broadcast on Sunday night the LD leader and deputy PM, Nick Clegg, asserts that his party would be in a worse position in the polls if they had not entered into the coalition agreement with the Tories.
If they had [...]
Fri, 20 Aug 2010 12:38:43 +0000
admin
General Election
Coalition
Lib Dems
Nick Clegg
|
Forecast UK
Predicting the Next UK General Election
Fri, 03 Sep 2010 02:23:51 +0000
How did we do?
Here’s a quick summary as to how the major polling organisations did in predicting the share of the vote, compared with Forecast UK.
Fri, 07 May 2010 18:34:03 +0000
Forecast UK
General
Analysis
General
Angus Reid
Bounce
Collapse
Few Days
Icm
Liberal Democrats
Polling Firms
Polls
Populus
Tns
Vote
Yougov
Final Forecast – 6th May 2010
This is our final forecast for the General Election.
Thu, 06 May 2010 06:23:05 +0000
Forecast UK
AV referendum
Labour
Voting Intention
YouGov
General
General
Absolute Majority
Conservatives
East London
General Election
George Galloway
Greens
Hung
John Bercow
Labour
Lib Dem
Liberal Democrat
Opinion Poll
Parliament
Percentage Changes
Plaid Cymru
Richard Taylor
Snp
Westminster
Latest Forecast – 3rd May 2010
This is our penultimate forecast before the General Election proper. We will be providing a full forecast once the final opinion polls have been released, published either on Wednesday evening or Thursday morning.
Mon, 03 May 2010 10:38:11 +0000
Forecast UK
Voting Intention
YouGov
General
Forecast
General
Scotland
Conservatives
David Cameron
Decline
Few Days
Final Polls
Fluctuations
Fortnight
General Election
House Of Commons
Labour
Liberal Democrat
Liberal Democrats
Margin Of Error
Momentum
Opinion Polls
Percentage Changes
Percentage Vote
Poll Results
Polling Day
Thursday Morning
Wednesday Evening
Latest Forecast – 28th April 2010
Since our last forecast the position in the polls has stabilised slightly. If an election was held tomorrow, we believe that the Liberal Democrats would still be in second position, but not with as large a lead over Labour as some recent opinion polls have indicated.
Wed, 28 Apr 2010 10:57:25 +0000
Forecast UK
Education
ICM
YouGov
General
Forecast
General
Conservatives
Downgrades
East London
Few Days
Fluctuations
George Galloway
Greens
House Of Commons
Labour Vote
Liberal Democrat
Liberal Democrats
Minor Parties
Opinion Polls
Percentage Changes
Plaid Cymru
Poll Results
Popular Vote
Possibilities
Snp
Westminster
Latest Forecast – 20th April 2010
A dramatic week in the polls has prompted us to release an interim forecast to reflect the current parties’ standings.
Tue, 20 Apr 2010 11:33:53 +0000
Forecast UK
Wales
YouGov
Coalition
Labour
Labour leadership
Forecast
General
20th April
Conservatives
Decline
East London
Fluctuations
George Galloway
Greens
House Of Commons
Labour Vote
Liberal Democrats
Parliament
Percentage Changes
Place Tomorrow
Plaid Cymru
Poll Results
Popular Vote
Possibilities
Richard Taylor
Snp
Westminster
1983 General Election Coverage – BBC
In 1983 Labour presented the most radical socialist manifesto for decades. Michael Foot’s party were annihilated at the ballot boxes and Margaret Thatcher achieved a landslide victory. Watch all the excitement of the TV coverage below.
Sat, 17 Apr 2010 09:00:49 +0000
Forecast UK
Voting Intention
YouGov
General
General
Ballot Boxes
Bbc
Decades
Election Coverage
Excitement
General Election
Labour
Landslide Victory
Manifesto
Margaret Thatcher
Michael Foot
Tv Coverage
Latest Forecast – 16th April 2010
Forecast UK Tracker
Fri, 16 Apr 2010 14:35:10 +0000
Forecast UK
Voting Intention
YouGov
General
Forecast
General
16th April
Conservatives
Democrats
East London
Election Campaign
General Election
George Galloway
Greens
Labour Vote
Lib Dem
Liberal Democrats
Parliament
Percentage Changes
Plaid Cymru
Popular Vote
Presen
Scotland
Seven Days
Snp
Tories
Uk Tracker
Westminster
Daily Poll Tracker
Sun, 11 Apr 2010 06:12:31 +0000
Forecast UK
MORI
Scotland
General
General
Tracker
16th April
20th April
21st April
23rd April
8th April
Daily Poll
Labour
Lib Dem
Poll Tracker
Polls
Swf
Introducing the Daily Poll Tracker
Daily Poll Tracker
Sat, 10 Apr 2010 16:49:40 +0000
Forecast UK
Harris
YouGov
General Election
Betting
Gordon Brown
Labour leadership
General
8th April
Accurate Representation
Daily Poll
Election Campaign
General Election
Labour
Lib Dem
Moving
Political Landscape
Poll Tracker
Polling Firms
Polls
Raw Data
Regional Variations
1997 General Election Coverage – BBC
1997 was the last time that power changed hands from one political party to another. Here’s the BBC coverage of that evening. Is the same thing about to happen again in Britain this year?
Fri, 09 Apr 2010 10:52:44 +0000
Forecast UK
AV referendum
Communicate
ICM
Voting Intention
YouGov
Coalition
Cuts
General
Bbc
Bbc Coverage
Election Coverage
General Election
Last Time
|
