home
The Queen's speech
Down load this for your web site from here
Latest Parliamentary Debates
Down load this for your web site from here
Latest Public Bills Debates
All MPs and Lords
Every Constituency
New legislation and Statutory Instruments
Enter name of committee to find the members
Down load this for your web site from here
Latest Written Ministerial Statements
Down load this for your web site from here
Parliamentary Division Votes
Search petition the PM.
Download this for your web site from here
Petitions to the Prime Minister
What the Government is Saying
Government Papers
UK Polling Reports
Local Government Association News
Public Sector News
National Statistics
National Audit Office
HM Treasury and Bank of England News
Electorial Commission News and Consultations
Information Commissioner News
Freedom of Information Request
National Arcives News and Latest Releases
British Issues
Poltical News
Political Books
Consultations
The latest Consultations
List of Departments
International
United Nations Says
World Quango Reports
UN Food and Agrigulture
UN World Food Programme
World Political News
Parliamentary Licence number: P2006000429
|
UK Polling Report
Independent Survey and Polling News
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 14:19:09 +0000
Latest Scottish Voting Intention
My broadband at home has decided to go down, so apologies if I’ve been something of an absentee landlord for a couple of days. Normal service should be resumed at the weekend. In the meantime, here are some voting intentions for the Scottish Partliament from TNS-BMRB (what used to be called System Three).
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 14:19:09 +0000
Anthony Wells
Scotland
Tory lead down to 11 with ComRes
There is a new ComRes poll in tomorrow’s Independent, with topline figures of CON 36%(-3), LAB 25%(+3), LDEM 19%(+1). Others are collectively on 20%.
Mon, 29 Jun 2009 21:02:35 +0000
Anthony Wells
Communicate
Voting Intention
New YouGov/People poll
There is a new YouGov poll in today’s People newspaper. Topline figures, with changes from YouGov’s last poll, are CON 40%(+2), LAB 24%(-1), LDEM 17%(-1). As with YouGov’s Friday poll, the changes are all within the margin of error and given that the fieldwork for this must have taken place only a day or two [...]
Sun, 28 Jun 2009 06:58:58 +0000
Anthony Wells
Voting Intention
YouGov
First Norwich North poll
Norwich’s University & College Union have commissioned an ICM poll for the forthcoming by-election in Nowich North. The topline voting intention figures for the by-election are (with changes from the general election shares of the vote) CON 34%(+1), LAB 30%(-15), LDEM 15%(-1), Green 14%(+11).
Fri, 26 Jun 2009 10:04:09 +0000
Anthony Wells
ICM
by-election
New YouGov poll
YouGov’s monthly poll for the Telegraph has been published. The topline figures, with changes from YouGov’s most recent poll, are CON 38%(-2), LAB 25%(+1), LDEM 18%(nc). There is a slight fall in Conservative support, but the changes are well within the margin of error. Support for other parties doesn’t seem to be subsiding much yet [...]
Thu, 25 Jun 2009 21:15:55 +0000
Anthony Wells
Voting Intention
YouGov
Economic Optimism #2
As promised, it’s time to take a wider look at economic optimism again.
Tue, 23 Jun 2009 13:14:02 +0000
Anthony Wells
Economy
MORI show economic optimism returning
On top of the new Harris this morning, there is also a new MORI poll CON 38%(-1), LAB 21%(-4), LDEM 19%(nc). Changes are from the MORI poll for Unison a week ago. Others remain at 22%, and as usual the largest chunk is going to UKIP on 8%, followed by the Greens and BNP, both [...]
Tue, 23 Jun 2009 12:27:42 +0000
Anthony Wells
Economy
MORI
Voting Intention
Harris return to voting intention polling…with 29% for Others
This morning’s Metro holds a surprise - there is a voting intention poll from Harris. Once a regular pollster in the UK, Harris dropped out of political polling and became an online company. They produced one poll prior to the last general election (which compared very well indeed with the actual result getting the Conservatives [...]
Tue, 23 Jun 2009 10:43:20 +0000
Anthony Wells
Voting Intention
New ComRes poll
ComRes have a new poll in tomorrow’s Independent on Sunday. The topline figures, with changes from their last poll a fortnight ago, are CON 39%(+1), LAB 22%(nc), LDEM 18%(-2). Comparatively little change here, and the “other” vote would appear to still be up, the maths suggests they are probably at around 21%.
Sat, 20 Jun 2009 18:47:45 +0000
Anthony Wells
Communicate
Voting Intention
New MORI Poll
Ipsos Mori have released a new poll conducted on behalf of Unison. Like ICM’s poll last night, it’s something of a return to normality after the extremes of last month. The topline figures, with changes from MORI’s last poll, are CON 39% (-1), LAB 25% (+7), LDEM 19% (+1) (the previous poll, you may remember, [...]
Tue, 16 Jun 2009 17:28:22 +0000
Anthony Wells
Uncategorized
|
politicalbetting.com
The web's premier resource for political betting.
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 20:39:37 +0000
Will this obliterate all other stories?
Could Swine Flu prove the joker in the pack?
Looking at the Politics Home news charts, which measures the column inches of each major story, the largest rises are the news that Shadow Chancellor George Osborne is to be investigated over his expenses, and that Health Secretary Andy Burnham has warned the Commons that Britain [...]
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 20:36:06 +0000
Morus
General
Could transport become a battleground?
Will this focus attention on the issue of ‘privatisation’?
Two big news stories in the last day or so - the postponement of the partial sale of Royal Mail (Lord Mandelson cited current economic circumstances, and potential buyers being unable to offer deals that were value for money), and the temporary nationalisation of the East [...]
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 13:21:08 +0000
Morus
Scotland
General
Another day, another end-game scenario
Will it be another knife-wielding Chancellor?
I tend to make a point of looking to the First Post for particularly juicy scoops, and yet again they have delivered. Their article from ‘the Mole’ yesterday indicates that the growing feud at the top of Government is between Chancellor Alistair Darling and First Secretary of State Lord Mandelson. [...]
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 03:18:23 +0000
Morus
Communicate
Voting Intention
General
Do bald guys always lose?
Are electorates follically prejudiced?
There are all sorts of patterns that exist in politics. Some are entirely coincidental, such as every US president elected in a year ending in zero dying in office from 1840 to 1960 (and Reagan - elected in 1980 - was shot but survived); others have a relatively clear mathematical and logical [...]
Wed, 01 Jul 2009 16:34:28 +0000
David Herdson
Voting Intention
YouGov
General
PMQs Open Thread
What line might Cameron take today?
It could be a tricky PMQs today for Gordon Brown - I’d expect him to take heavy fire over the refusal to completely scrap the ID cards programme, and wouldn’t be surprised if Ed Ball’s recent spat with Fraser Nelson of the Spectator didn’t earn a mention (here is the [...]
Wed, 01 Jul 2009 10:55:56 +0000
Morus
ICM
by-election
General
What does the ID card news actually mean?
Does this suggest Johnson is still angling for the top job?
There is still a large school of thought that thinks Brown will be allowed to step aside with dignity before the next election, and that such a promise was given to stop him being ousted in an ugly coup a month ago. Alan Johnson, who [...]
Wed, 01 Jul 2009 03:07:56 +0000
Morus
Voting Intention
YouGov
General
Does the sacked ambassador have a chance in Norwich?
Could Craig cash in on the anti-pol mood?
The news that Craig Murray is to stand in the Norwich North by election could really shake up the race and makes the betting quite interesting. Murray came to public attention in 2003 when he was sacked as Britain’s ambassador to Uzbekistan for taking a stance against [...]
Tue, 30 Jun 2009 18:30:42 +0000
Mike Smithson
Economy
General
Are shares in Mandelson being over-sold?
Is he anything like as smart as his billing?
Yesterday’s big statement, Brown’s latest re-launch, is the first such major government move since Lord Mandelson was promoted to his unique new position in charge of just about everything.
So how come it got such a terrible press this morning. How come that the work of the “great [...]
Tue, 30 Jun 2009 12:25:10 +0000
Mike Smithson
Economy
MORI
Voting Intention
General Election
Labour
What if support for the “others” doesn’t decline?
Who’ll suffer most - Dave, Gord or Nick?
Another poll and another big share for “other parties” which have seen their Westminster polling numbers stay at very high levels even though it’s nearly a month since the June 4th Euro Elections.
All the pundits, including me, were suggesting a rapid decline as the EU election affect wears [...]
Tue, 30 Jun 2009 03:12:09 +0000
Mike Smithson
Voting Intention
General Election
Pollsters/polling
ComRes has Labour just 11 points behind
CON 36 (-3) LAB 25 (+3) LD 19 (+1)
But the Tories are most trusted when it comes to cuts
There’s a new poll tonight from ComRes for tomorrow’s Indy. The figures are above and although the changes are all within the margin of error they should provide a touch of encouragement for Labour supporters. For they [...]
Mon, 29 Jun 2009 20:57:22 +0000
Mike Smithson
Communicate
Voting Intention
General
So is Brown’s new programme going to do the trick?
This afternoon we had the third “draft Queen’s speech - the new addition to the commons scene - the trailing of the Queen’s speech setting out the planned legislative programme. This was first seen two years ago and provides a peg for PMs present and future to set out a broad vision as well as [...]
Mon, 29 Jun 2009 18:07:09 +0000
Mike Smithson
Uncategorized
General
Should MPs have been told about the spending review first?
Is Speaker Bercow going to follow through on his warning?
Last Wednesday in his statement after PMQs Speaker Bercow made it clear that the first place ministers should make announcements was to the house of commons.
Well what’s he going to do about Peter Mandelson’s radio comments this morning that the spending review will be postponed [...]
Mon, 29 Jun 2009 12:56:50 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election
Labour
Speaker
Could PM Johnson deny Cameron his majority?
Would a change give Labour more hope?
There’s a sentence in John Rentoul’s weekend piece that is worth examining. For in assessing prospect for the election Rentoul notes “I assume that the Labour Party will recover from its current trough of unpopularity, by which I mean that it replaces Brown with Alan Johnson..”
Rentoul, of course, [...]
Mon, 29 Jun 2009 04:32:55 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election
Labour
Pollsters/polling
What do we make of the Cameron/Osborne joint office reports?
Could my 33/1 Hammond for Chancellor bet be a winner?
Back in April I suggested backing Philip Hammond for next chancellor at the then attractive odds of 33/1.
My reasoning then, which is even more so now, has been the very high profile that Hammond seems to get when it comes to arguing the Tory case [...]
Sun, 28 Jun 2009 19:18:10 +0000
Mike Smithson
General
New YouGov poll has Dave slightly further ahead
CON 40 (+2) LAB 24 (-1) LD 17 (-1)
But the changes are all within the margin of error
There was a new poll out overnight after all and we are just picking up the details. It was in the People which carried a similar YouGov poll only a few weeks ago. No fieldwork dates are mentioned [...]
Sun, 28 Jun 2009 08:02:16 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election
Betting
Pollsters/polling
Does Brown have too many deputies?
Can he cope with Harriet, Mandy and Ed at the same time?
Just as every Prime Minister needs a Willie, as Margaret Thatcher famously noted, so the present incumbent believes he needs Balls. She was right; he may not be.
While Balls isn’t Brown’s deputy, he is almost certainly his closest political confidante within the cabinet, his [...]
Sun, 28 Jun 2009 02:03:34 +0000
David Herdson
General Election
Labour
Why do part-time MPs get full-time pay?
John Redwood’s blog
Why do they have seventeen weeks annual holiday?
Somewhat to my surprise I find myself in total agreement with today’s blog entry by former Tory minister, John Redwood.
In it he sets out just how little time MPs actually have to spend at Westminster because of the elongated holidays and the truncated working week.
He [...]
Sat, 27 Jun 2009 15:15:06 +0000
Mike Smithson
General
Has Cameron found the election dividing line - honesty?
Indy online
Is this going to be the core Tory theme?
Usually one of the most consistent Saturday morning political “reads” is Andrew Grice’s column in the Independent and today he speculates on what he think what the Tories are planning to make the election all about.
He suggests that Tory riposte to Brown’s “investment versus cuts” [...]
Sat, 27 Jun 2009 05:01:53 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election
Labour
MPs expenses probe
Tories
Does this blow apart Gord’s “10% cuts” rhetoric?
YouGov
What does he do now in the face of these numbers?
Thanks to Andrew Sparrow in the Guardian for spotting the above numbers in the latest YouGov poll for they seem to blow a big hole in Brown’s core general election strategy - to reduce the argument down to a choice between “Labour investment” and [...]
Fri, 26 Jun 2009 16:19:11 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election
Labour
Pollsters/polling
ICM - Tories heading for solid victory in Norwich North
CON 34 (+1) LAB 30 (-15) LD 15 (-1) GRN 14 (+11)
Is the first poll just in line with expectations?
The above ICM poll with variations on what happened at the last election was commissioned by Norwich’s University & College Union and has just been published. The sample was just 500 [...]
Fri, 26 Jun 2009 11:14:24 +0000
Mike Smithson
Pollsters/polling
UK Elections - others
Will this be the election’s most interesting battle-ground?
What if an “independent” Tory fought Bercow?
One feature of the week that I’ve found shocking and unexpected has been the venom from many parts of the Tory party over the man who was elected speaker of the commons on Monday, John Bercow.
I was no fan of the Buckingham MP but I made damn sure [...]
Fri, 26 Jun 2009 03:18:19 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election
Betting
Speaker
Labour get three points closer with YouGov
CON 38 (-2) LAB 25(+1) LD 18 (nc)
But “others” continue to impact on the numbers
The Telegraph’s YouGov poll for June is out and shows modest changes on the last survey from the firm a fortnight ago.
Labour will be pleased to have clawed back the deficit to what appears a modest 13 points. The Tories [...]
Thu, 25 Jun 2009 21:55:50 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election
Pollsters/polling
PB News including PB Mobile
Keeping up with the site while on the move
In order to meet the need of PBers who want to follow the site while on the move but might be worried by the cost of roaming data charges while abroad we’ve created PB Mobile.
This is a US-based service and it is configured for US users which [...]
Thu, 25 Jun 2009 17:38:42 +0000
Mike Smithson
About the site
But what if he’s right?
Could he have the winning formula after all?
The largely settled view of commentators and punters alike is that Labour will lose the next general election. No pundit has predicted that Labour (still less Brown) will be running government after polling day for some time, and the betting markets make the Conservatives heavily odds-on to win [...]
Thu, 25 Jun 2009 12:30:10 +0000
David Herdson
General Election
Betting
Labour
Can he make it to the parliamentary recess?
Will the “dignified exit” then come in September?
Ever since his survival after the June 4th elections disaster there’s been talk that a deal was done with Mandelson during those critical few days for Brown to be allowed to stay so he could have a “dignified exit” at a less frenetic time.
This, I believe, is [...]
Thu, 25 Jun 2009 03:36:09 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election
Betting
Labour
Speaker
Tories
Could Bercow be a future PM?
What do we think of Paul Linford’s speculation?
Labour inclined blogger, Paul Linford has an interesting post under the heading “Could it be Prime Minister Bercow one day?”.
His article looks at some of the historical precedent and then concludes:
“..Bercow has said he will do nine years in the Chair, effectively two full Parliaments plus [...]
Wed, 24 Jun 2009 19:52:39 +0000
Mike Smithson
Labour
Speaker
Tories
Who’s winning the Dave-Gord numbers war?
BBC Online
Will voters get bored by the details?
Yet again today’s PMQ was dominated by the Tory leader trying to get the PM to admit that his answers a week ago and other public statements on cuts were not accurate. He was, in fact, being called a liar.
The Tory strategy seems to be two-fold - to [...]
Wed, 24 Jun 2009 13:20:09 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election
Labour
Lib Dems
Tories
Will my mate Pat ask a planted question?
Or will be continue his customary independence?
Pictured above is Pat Hall, MP for Bedford since 1997, my general election opponent in 1992 and my colleague for adjoining divisions on Bedfordshire county council from 1989-1996.
Today at the first post-Michael Martin PMQs he’s down to ask the first question and I wonder whether he’ll succumb [...]
Wed, 24 Jun 2009 09:29:50 +0000
Mike Smithson
Labour
MPs expenses probe
How tricky is the Iraq inquiry for Brown/Blair?
Could a pre-election public grilling hurt Labour?
The main lead in the Guardian this morning is the news that both Blair and Brown are likely to face public questioning about their Iraq war role by the Chilcot inquiry.
Last week Brown announced that this would be in secret but after a wave a protests that has been [...]
Wed, 24 Jun 2009 01:29:11 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election
Labour
Lib Dems
Can the tide be turned?
This is an interesting chart just issued by MORI showing it’s polling trends since over the past six years. The main thing to note is that the firm’s methodology changed in June 2008 and this might have been the basis of a small part of the Labour decline.
Whatever it doesn’t look good this far out [...]
Tue, 23 Jun 2009 17:48:56 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election
Pollsters/polling
Labour down 4 points with Ipsos-MORI
CON 38 (-1) LAB 21 (-4) LD 19 (nc)
“Others” continue to have big impact on the shares
A new poll from Ipsos-MORI shows Labour sharply down on the last survey from the firm taken the weekend before. The firm itself is quoting changes on a poll before the Euro elections when Labour dropped to 18%.
This is [...]
Tue, 23 Jun 2009 12:18:09 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election
Pollsters/polling
Was Bercow’s move leftwards just a ploy?
How else could he have got Labour to back his bid?
Last night, in the aftermath of the commons election, the Indy writer, Steve Richards, talked in a TV interview about a private conversation that he’d had with Bercow just after the 2005 general election when the Buckingham MP revealed that his career objective was to [...]
Tue, 23 Jun 2009 09:08:32 +0000
Mike Smithson
General
Speaker
Gloomy news for Labour in Harris poll
New data points to 158 Tory gains
While many Labour MPs might be celebrating that “their man” won yesterday’s election for the speaker there’s a sharp reminder of the challenge the party faces at the election in a new Harris poll for today’s Metro.
The pollster which used to be one of the main firms in the [...]
Tue, 23 Jun 2009 01:37:56 +0000
Mike Smithson
General Election
Labour
Pollsters/polling
Is this now a generational thing?
Will the remaining votes split by their age groups?
As we wait for the final result to be declared it strikes me that this is a generational battle - with Bercow picking up the younger age groups and Young the old one.
And given that those who went out after round two were all above 60 I [...]
Mon, 22 Jun 2009 19:11:53 +0000
Mike Smithson
General
So now it’s down to six?
Is it going to be Bercow after all?
On the previous thread someone picked up this from the Guardian - “ To win, someone is going to have to get 298 votes. Bercow is well ahead of young, but even with all the Beckett votes and all the Dhanda votes he only gets up to 279 [...]
Mon, 22 Jun 2009 16:42:18 +0000
Mike Smithson
Betting
Speaker
|
Forecast UK
Predicting the Next UK General Election
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 20:39:37 +0000
Euros 2009 – Final Forecast
This is our final forecast for the European Elections on the 4th of June.
Tue, 02 Jun 2009 06:00:29 +0000
Forecast UK
General
General
European Elections
Euros
Euros 2009 – First Forecast
Predicting the outcome of the European vote is a difficult job. In particular, voter turnout may have a dramatic effect on the figures. There is also the issue as to whether there is a “spiral of silence” about the level of support for the BNP. However, we will attempt to provide a forecast based on [...]
Sat, 23 May 2009 09:10:14 +0000
Forecast UK
Scotland
General
Euro
Forecast
Bnp
Dramatic Effect
Euros
Job
Opinion Polls
Spiral Of Silence
Vote
Voter Turnout
Latest Forecast – 21st May 2009
Our first forecast since the expenses crisis reveals a shift in public opinion away from the two main parties, but towards the Liberal Democrats and minority parties. Of greatest note is the notable increase in seats that we are now forecasting will be held by the Liberal Democrats, in comparison to our earlier forecasts this [...]
Thu, 21 May 2009 15:04:16 +0000
Forecast UK
Communicate
Voting Intention
General
Forecast
General
Anger
Brighton
Conservative Majority
Conservatives
Express
General Election
Glasgow North
Green Party
Labour
Liberal Democrats
Losers
Lost
Minority Parties
Mp
Public Opinion
Scotland
Snp
Speaker Michael
Tories
Wipeout
New Forecasts Coming Soon
We will shortly be publishing new forecasts, both for a UK General Election and for the Euro Vote in June. Since our last forecast the political situation in the UK has altered significantly and our next forecasts will demonstrate not just a climb in poll ratings for the Liberal Democrats but also the effect of [...]
Wed, 20 May 2009 08:34:37 +0000
Forecast UK
Voting Intention
YouGov
General
General
Liberal Democrats
Minor Parties
Political Situation
Poll Ratings
Uk General Election
Vote
Will the next Election see a Lib Dem wipeout?
Here at Forecast UK we’ve been consistently predicting a large number of losses for the Liberal Democrats at the next General Election (if the public votes as it is currently indicating in the polls). How realistic are those predictions?
Mon, 11 May 2009 20:58:57 +0000
Forecast UK
ICM
by-election
General
Analysis
Array
Berwickshire
Carshalton
Cheadle
Cheam
Conservative Party
Conservatives
Devon North
East Cc
Eastleigh
Frome
General Election
Lead
Lib Dem
Lib Dems
Liberal Democrats
Losses
Polls
Public Votes
Radnorshire
Richmond Park
Solihull
Somerton
South Bc
Swing
Tories
Vote
Wallington
Westmorland
Wipeout
Latest Forecast – 4th May 2009
Our third forecast of the year reflects the increasing bad news for the Labour Government in the news and the consequential effect on public opinion.
Mon, 04 May 2009 13:46:34 +0000
Forecast UK
Voting Intention
YouGov
General
Forecast
Bad News
Conservative Majority
Green Party
Labour Government
Liberal Democrat
Losses
Mp
Public Opinion
Snp
Vote
Latest Forecast – 18th March 2009
Our second forecast of the year shows that the Conservative double-digit lead continues to be maintained.
Wed, 18 Mar 2009 11:55:10 +0000
Forecast UK
Economy
General
General
Conservative Majority
Green Party
Heavy Losses
Labour
Liberal Democrat
Mp
Signs
Snp
Vote
Latest Forecast – 29th January 2009
Our first forecast of the New Year shows that the "Brown Bounce" has all but evaporated.
Thu, 29 Jan 2009 09:29:45 +0000
Forecast UK
Economy
MORI
Voting Intention
General Election
Labour
General
Bounce
Conservative Majority
Conservatives
Green Party
Labour
Liberal Democrat
Mp
Nbsp
New Year
Snp
Tory
Vote
Liberal Vision Paper confirms ForecastUK Predictions
Here at Forecast UK we have consistently predicted a Conservative sweep of English Liberal Democrat Seats. Now blogger Guido Fawkes reports on a new Liberal Democrat pressure group paper that agrees with this forecast.
Sun, 14 Sep 2008 21:12:20 +0000
Forecast UK
Voting Intention
General Election
Pollsters/polling
Comment
Boundary Changes
England
Fringe
Group Paper
Guido Fawkes
Libdems
Liberal Democrat
Local Election Results
Lunchtime
Mps
Pressure Group
Two Thirds
Vision Paper
Latest Forecast – 12th September 2008
Our first forecast since the summer shows a slight improvement for Labour, especially in their Scottish heartlands. We are now predicting gains for the SNP in the region of 20 seats, still a disaster but not the complete Scottish landslide we were forecasting last month.
Fri, 12 Sep 2008 16:22:24 +0000
Forecast UK
Communicate
Voting Intention
General
Forecast
Brighton
Conservative Majority
Conservatives
Disaster
Green Party
Heartlands
Labour
Landslide
Liberal Democrat
Mp
Slight Improvement
Snp
Tory
Vote
|
